000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251515 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT JUN 25 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH 11N86W 12N92W 11N100W 13N105W 07N126W. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 7N126W 00N135W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 220 NM S OF AXIS FROM 88W-95W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR W PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N140W TO 12N139W. AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM GUATEMALA TO 11N96W. OTHERWISE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE AREA N OF 10N. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OFF THE W COAST OF MEXICO JUST W OF PUERTO VALLARTA NEAR 21N106W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE AREA W OF 115W AND N OF N 20N E OF 115W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER DIFFLUENT ELY FLOW S OF THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 88W-95W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N AND W OF 115W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 110W. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT CONTINUE FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 90W-105W...WITH 8-10 FT SW SWELL S OF 10N BETWEEN 85W AND 125W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK 1013 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 16N112W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES CENTER. $$ DGS 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251515 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT JUN 25 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH 11N86W 12N92W 11N100W 13N105W 07N126W. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 7N126W 00N135W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 220 NM S OF AXIS FROM 88W-95W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR W PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N140W TO 12N139W. AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM GUATEMALA TO 11N96W. OTHERWISE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE AREA N OF 10N. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OFF THE W COAST OF MEXICO JUST W OF PUERTO VALLARTA NEAR 21N106W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE AREA W OF 115W AND N OF N 20N E OF 115W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER DIFFLUENT ELY FLOW S OF THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 88W-95W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N AND W OF 115W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 110W. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT CONTINUE FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 90W-105W...WITH 8-10 FT SW SWELL S OF 10N BETWEEN 85W AND 125W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK 1013 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 16N112W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES CENTER. $$ DGS