000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250947 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT JUN 25 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 12N87W TO 12N100W TO 14N107W TO 09N123W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N123W TO 06N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 91W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 96W AND 103W. ...DISCUSSION... TWO LARGE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONES HAVE MERGED AND NOW DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE MEAN CENTER OF THE PARENT ANTICYCLONE IS POSITIONED OVER 20N106W NEAR THE W CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS REACHING W TO SW TO NEAR 18N136W. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ABUNDANCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THOSE AREAS MAINTAINING A RATHER DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NW HALF OF THE AREA AS DEPICTED BY THE FIELD OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH JUST NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS FORECAST TO BYPASS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA SOUTHWESTWARD TO FAR N OLD MEXICO NEAR 29N107W. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH HAS BECOME CHOKED OFF AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED ANTICYCLONE HAS EXPANDED NORTHWARD. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW S OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO IS TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEBRIS CLOUDS...FROM EARLIER CONVECTION THAT WAS OCCURRING OVER INTERIOR MEXICO...WITH ADDITIONAL STRONGER CONVECTION RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE ALSO MOVING WESTWARD. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION THAT EARLIER DEVELOPED OVER COLOMBIA HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE EXTENDING FROM 02N TO 07N WITHIN 120 TO 150 NM OF THE W COAST OF COLOMBIA. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LOCATED INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BEING ENHANCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS EXTENDING S TO OVER CENTRAL NICARAGUA NEAR 12N85W...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ON THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH UNDER THESE CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC FACTORS WILL PERSIST. THERE STILL REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK LOW PRES BECOMING MORE DEFINITIVE ALONG THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH RECENT GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DIMINISHED THE CHANCE OF LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGION WITH THE MAJORITY OF ANY CONCENTRATED VORTICITY NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY TO THE N OF 12N AND W OF 123W. A WEAK 1011 MB AREA OF LOW PRES WAS EVIDENT ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 17N112W. THIS LOW HAS LIMITED ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS...AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WINDSAT AND ASCAT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED NE 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT IN NORTHERLY SWELL IN A SMALL N CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 123W AND 127W. THESE WINDS WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MEANWHILE...LONG PERIOD 8 FT SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N119W TO 24N130W TO 24N140W. THIS SWELL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 36 HOURS WHILE COMMINGLING WITH NORTHERLY SWELL. SOUTHERLY FLOW FEEDING IN TO THE MONSOON TROUGH CONSISTS OF 20 KT S TO SW WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W AS INDICATED BY RECENT ASCAT PASSES. THIS AREA OF 20 KT WINDS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHRINK AND MIGRATE SLIGHTLY NE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE N TO NE. JUST TO THE SW...A RECENT WINDSAT PASS CAPTURED 20 KT SE TO S WINDS S OF 05N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W ALONG WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT TODAY AS THE GRADIENT IN THAT REGION WEAKENS. MEANWHILE...CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHWESTERLY SWELLS OF 8 TO 10 FT DOMINATE THE WATERS S OF 11N BETWEEN 82W AND 125W. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY TO 8 TO 9 FT BY 48 HOURS WHILE SHRINKING IN AREAL COVERAGE. $$ LEWITSKY 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250947 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT JUN 25 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 12N87W TO 12N100W TO 14N107W TO 09N123W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N123W TO 06N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 91W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 96W AND 103W. ...DISCUSSION... TWO LARGE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONES HAVE MERGED AND NOW DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE MEAN CENTER OF THE PARENT ANTICYCLONE IS POSITIONED OVER 20N106W NEAR THE W CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS REACHING W TO SW TO NEAR 18N136W. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ABUNDANCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THOSE AREAS MAINTAINING A RATHER DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NW HALF OF THE AREA AS DEPICTED BY THE FIELD OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH JUST NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS FORECAST TO BYPASS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA SOUTHWESTWARD TO FAR N OLD MEXICO NEAR 29N107W. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH HAS BECOME CHOKED OFF AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED ANTICYCLONE HAS EXPANDED NORTHWARD. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW S OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO IS TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEBRIS CLOUDS...FROM EARLIER CONVECTION THAT WAS OCCURRING OVER INTERIOR MEXICO...WITH ADDITIONAL STRONGER CONVECTION RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE ALSO MOVING WESTWARD. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION THAT EARLIER DEVELOPED OVER COLOMBIA HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE EXTENDING FROM 02N TO 07N WITHIN 120 TO 150 NM OF THE W COAST OF COLOMBIA. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LOCATED INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BEING ENHANCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS EXTENDING S TO OVER CENTRAL NICARAGUA NEAR 12N85W...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ON THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH UNDER THESE CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC FACTORS WILL PERSIST. THERE STILL REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK LOW PRES BECOMING MORE DEFINITIVE ALONG THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH RECENT GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DIMINISHED THE CHANCE OF LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGION WITH THE MAJORITY OF ANY CONCENTRATED VORTICITY NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY TO THE N OF 12N AND W OF 123W. A WEAK 1011 MB AREA OF LOW PRES WAS EVIDENT ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 17N112W. THIS LOW HAS LIMITED ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS...AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WINDSAT AND ASCAT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED NE 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT IN NORTHERLY SWELL IN A SMALL N CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 123W AND 127W. THESE WINDS WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MEANWHILE...LONG PERIOD 8 FT SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N119W TO 24N130W TO 24N140W. THIS SWELL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 36 HOURS WHILE COMMINGLING WITH NORTHERLY SWELL. SOUTHERLY FLOW FEEDING IN TO THE MONSOON TROUGH CONSISTS OF 20 KT S TO SW WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W AS INDICATED BY RECENT ASCAT PASSES. THIS AREA OF 20 KT WINDS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHRINK AND MIGRATE SLIGHTLY NE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE N TO NE. JUST TO THE SW...A RECENT WINDSAT PASS CAPTURED 20 KT SE TO S WINDS S OF 05N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W ALONG WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT TODAY AS THE GRADIENT IN THAT REGION WEAKENS. MEANWHILE...CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHWESTERLY SWELLS OF 8 TO 10 FT DOMINATE THE WATERS S OF 11N BETWEEN 82W AND 125W. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY TO 8 TO 9 FT BY 48 HOURS WHILE SHRINKING IN AREAL COVERAGE. $$ LEWITSKY