000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250329 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT JUN 25 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W NW TO 16N100W TO 14N110W TO 10N127W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N127W 10N130W TO 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE TROUGH E OF 90W...AND FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 98W-100W. ...DISCUSSION... A LARGE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE JUST MOVED INLAND TO OVER FAR NW MEXICO NEAR 30N110W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM IT TO A SMALL COL REGION AT 18N137W. THIS RIDGE FEATURE PRETTY MUCH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ABUNDANCE OF MOSTLY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE OVER THOSE AREAS MAINTAINING A RATHER DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED BY THE FIELD OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THOSE SECTIONS. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH JUST NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS FORECAST TO BYPASS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN TEXAS SOUTHWESTWARD TO EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH SEPARATES THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER NW OLD MEXICO FROM UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 21N102W. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW S OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO IS TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD THAT IS ATTRIBUTED TO RECENT WEAK CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 105W-113W...IN ADDITION TO THE STRONGER CONVECTION RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION THAT EARLIER DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO PRONOUNCED ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY HAVE RECENTLY WEAKENED SOME. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA THAT STRETCHES SW TO BELIZE AND NE GUATEMALA...AND AS A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE BROAD MONSOONAL CIRCULATION ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC REGION. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...AND DURING THE DAY SAT WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM AFTERNOON HEATING. HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS CURRENT FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC FACTORS WITH THE WAVE ENERGY BEING ABSORBED INTO THE MONSOON CIRCULATION AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. THERE STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OF LOW PRES BECOMING MORE DEFINITIVE ALONG THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY TO THE N OF 12N AND W OF 121W. A WEAK TROUGH IS NOTED ON LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY TO EXTEND ALONG 112W FROM 16N-19N. ASCAT DATA FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT A SURGE OF 15 KT N WINDS IS OCCURRING THE NW OF LINE FROM 30N124W TO 23N140W. A SMALL SWATH OF 8-10 FT SEAS DUE TO A N SWELL IS WITHIN THIS AREA OF WINDS ...BUT WILL SUBSIDE TO 8 FT WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. BY 48 HOURS THIS AREA SHRINKS TO N OF 27N BETWEEN 119W-125W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN A MIXED N AND SW SWELL. S-SW LOW LEVEL INFLOW FOUND TO THE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH CONSISTS OF WINDS TO 20 KT BETWEEN 80W-128W WHERE SEAS TO 9 FT IN A SW SWELL. AS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY N OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE S-SW 20 KT WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 85W-96W AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 90-100W IN 48 HOURS. SEAS MAY INCREASE TO 10 FT IN A SW SWELL DURING THOSE FORECAST TIMES...WITH SEAS 8-10 FT IN A SW SWELL ELSEWHERE S OF 11N BETWEEN 81W-125W. THE HIGHER END OF THE SEAS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO BETWEEN 96W-115W. $$ AGUIRRE 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250329 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT JUN 25 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W NW TO 16N100W TO 14N110W TO 10N127W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N127W 10N130W TO 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE TROUGH E OF 90W...AND FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 98W-100W. ...DISCUSSION... A LARGE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE JUST MOVED INLAND TO OVER FAR NW MEXICO NEAR 30N110W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM IT TO A SMALL COL REGION AT 18N137W. THIS RIDGE FEATURE PRETTY MUCH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ABUNDANCE OF MOSTLY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE OVER THOSE AREAS MAINTAINING A RATHER DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED BY THE FIELD OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THOSE SECTIONS. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH JUST NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS FORECAST TO BYPASS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN TEXAS SOUTHWESTWARD TO EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH SEPARATES THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER NW OLD MEXICO FROM UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 21N102W. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW S OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO IS TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD THAT IS ATTRIBUTED TO RECENT WEAK CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 105W-113W...IN ADDITION TO THE STRONGER CONVECTION RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION THAT EARLIER DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO PRONOUNCED ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY HAVE RECENTLY WEAKENED SOME. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA THAT STRETCHES SW TO BELIZE AND NE GUATEMALA...AND AS A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE BROAD MONSOONAL CIRCULATION ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC REGION. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...AND DURING THE DAY SAT WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM AFTERNOON HEATING. HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS CURRENT FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC FACTORS WITH THE WAVE ENERGY BEING ABSORBED INTO THE MONSOON CIRCULATION AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. THERE STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OF LOW PRES BECOMING MORE DEFINITIVE ALONG THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY TO THE N OF 12N AND W OF 121W. A WEAK TROUGH IS NOTED ON LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY TO EXTEND ALONG 112W FROM 16N-19N. ASCAT DATA FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT A SURGE OF 15 KT N WINDS IS OCCURRING THE NW OF LINE FROM 30N124W TO 23N140W. A SMALL SWATH OF 8-10 FT SEAS DUE TO A N SWELL IS WITHIN THIS AREA OF WINDS ...BUT WILL SUBSIDE TO 8 FT WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. BY 48 HOURS THIS AREA SHRINKS TO N OF 27N BETWEEN 119W-125W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN A MIXED N AND SW SWELL. S-SW LOW LEVEL INFLOW FOUND TO THE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH CONSISTS OF WINDS TO 20 KT BETWEEN 80W-128W WHERE SEAS TO 9 FT IN A SW SWELL. AS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY N OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE S-SW 20 KT WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 85W-96W AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 90-100W IN 48 HOURS. SEAS MAY INCREASE TO 10 FT IN A SW SWELL DURING THOSE FORECAST TIMES...WITH SEAS 8-10 FT IN A SW SWELL ELSEWHERE S OF 11N BETWEEN 81W-125W. THE HIGHER END OF THE SEAS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO BETWEEN 96W-115W. $$ AGUIRRE