000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242200 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI JUN 24 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 18000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W NW TO 15N100W TO 17N110W ...THEN RESUMES AT 14N113W TO 7N123W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 7N123W TO 6N127W TO 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 87W-92W...AND ALSO FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 97W-99W. ...DISCUSSION... A LARGE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS JUST MOVED EASTWARD TO OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. A RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM IT TO A SMALL COL REGION AT 19N140W. THIS RIDGE FEATURE PRETTY MUCH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ABUNDANCE OF MOSTLY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE OVER THOSE AREAS MAINTAINING A RATHER DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED BY THE FIELD OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THOSE SECTIONS. JUST TO THE NW OF THE AREA...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED...BUT IS FORECAST TO BYPASS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN TEXAS SOUTHWESTWARD TO EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH SEPARATES THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER NW OLD MEXICO FROM UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 21N1031W. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW S OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO IS TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD THAT IS ATTRIBUTED TO WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 105W-113W IN ADDITION TO THE STRONGER CONVECTION RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE QUICKLY DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF GUATEMALA...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AMERICA AS INSTABILITY THERE HAS BECOME VERY PRONOUNCED IN LATE AFTERNOON DAYTIME HEATING. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA THAT STRETCHES SW TO BELIZE AND NE GUATEMALA...AND AS A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE BROAD MONSOONAL CIRCULATION ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC REGION. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND AS WAVE ENERGY GETS ABSORBED INTO THE MONSOON CIRCULATION GENERATING ADDITIONAL HEAVY TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ABOVE DESCRIBED LOCATIONS. THERE STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OF LOW PRES BECOMING MORE DEFINITIVE ALONG THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY TO THE N OF 12N AND W OF 121W. A WEAK TROUGH IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TO EXTEND ALONG 112W FROM 16N-19N. A FEW SHIP REPORTS ALONG WITH AN ASCAT PASS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT A SURGE OF 15 KT N WINDS IS OCCURRING THE NW OF LINE FROM 30N124W TO 23N140W. A SMALL SWATH OF 8-10 FT SEAS IN A N SWELL IS WITHIN THIS AREA OF WINDS...BUT ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 8 FT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BY 48 HOURS THIS AREA SHRINKS TO N OF 27N BETWEEN 119W-125W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN A MIXED N AND SW SWELL. S-SW LOW LEVEL INFLOW FOUND TO THE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH CONSISTS OF WINDS TO 20 KT BETWEEN 80W-128W WHERE SEAS TO 9 FT IN A SW SWELL. AS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY N OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE S-SW 20 KT WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 85W-96W AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 88W-100W IN 48 HOURS. SEAS MAY INCREASE TO 10 FT IN A SW SWELL DURING THOSE FORECAST TIMES...WITH SEAS 8-10 FT IN A SW SWELL ELSEWHERE S OF 11N BETWEEN 81W-125W. THE HIGHER END OF THE SEAS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO BETWEEN 96W-115W. $$ AGUIRRE 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242200 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI JUN 24 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 18000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W NW TO 15N100W TO 17N110W ...THEN RESUMES AT 14N113W TO 7N123W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 7N123W TO 6N127W TO 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 87W-92W...AND ALSO FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 97W-99W. ...DISCUSSION... A LARGE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS JUST MOVED EASTWARD TO OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. A RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM IT TO A SMALL COL REGION AT 19N140W. THIS RIDGE FEATURE PRETTY MUCH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ABUNDANCE OF MOSTLY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE OVER THOSE AREAS MAINTAINING A RATHER DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED BY THE FIELD OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THOSE SECTIONS. JUST TO THE NW OF THE AREA...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED...BUT IS FORECAST TO BYPASS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN TEXAS SOUTHWESTWARD TO EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH SEPARATES THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER NW OLD MEXICO FROM UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 21N1031W. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW S OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO IS TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD THAT IS ATTRIBUTED TO WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 105W-113W IN ADDITION TO THE STRONGER CONVECTION RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE QUICKLY DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF GUATEMALA...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AMERICA AS INSTABILITY THERE HAS BECOME VERY PRONOUNCED IN LATE AFTERNOON DAYTIME HEATING. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA THAT STRETCHES SW TO BELIZE AND NE GUATEMALA...AND AS A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE BROAD MONSOONAL CIRCULATION ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC REGION. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND AS WAVE ENERGY GETS ABSORBED INTO THE MONSOON CIRCULATION GENERATING ADDITIONAL HEAVY TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ABOVE DESCRIBED LOCATIONS. THERE STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OF LOW PRES BECOMING MORE DEFINITIVE ALONG THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY TO THE N OF 12N AND W OF 121W. A WEAK TROUGH IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TO EXTEND ALONG 112W FROM 16N-19N. A FEW SHIP REPORTS ALONG WITH AN ASCAT PASS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT A SURGE OF 15 KT N WINDS IS OCCURRING THE NW OF LINE FROM 30N124W TO 23N140W. A SMALL SWATH OF 8-10 FT SEAS IN A N SWELL IS WITHIN THIS AREA OF WINDS...BUT ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 8 FT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BY 48 HOURS THIS AREA SHRINKS TO N OF 27N BETWEEN 119W-125W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN A MIXED N AND SW SWELL. S-SW LOW LEVEL INFLOW FOUND TO THE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH CONSISTS OF WINDS TO 20 KT BETWEEN 80W-128W WHERE SEAS TO 9 FT IN A SW SWELL. AS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY N OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE S-SW 20 KT WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 85W-96W AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 88W-100W IN 48 HOURS. SEAS MAY INCREASE TO 10 FT IN A SW SWELL DURING THOSE FORECAST TIMES...WITH SEAS 8-10 FT IN A SW SWELL ELSEWHERE S OF 11N BETWEEN 81W-125W. THE HIGHER END OF THE SEAS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO BETWEEN 96W-115W. $$ AGUIRRE