000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240934 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI JUN 24 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N86W TO 12N92W TO 18N103W TO 09N118W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N118W TO 07N130W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. ...DISCUSSION... A LARGE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 28N120W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 20N136W. THIS UPPER FEATURE DOMINATES THE NW HALF OF AREA WITH A VAST AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THIS REGION. AN UPPER TROUGH IS ATTEMPTING TO APPROACH FROM THE NW REACHING FROM THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST SW TO 31N140W. THE ANTICYCLONE WILL PREVENT THE UPPER TROUGH FROM MOVING INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS SW ACROSS NW MEXICO TO A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH SEPARATES THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER NW OLD MEXICO FROM UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 21N101W. UPPER DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW S OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO WAS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR EASTERN WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 82W AND 90W...AND ALSO WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 11N TO 15N. THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC TO NEAR 120W AND WAS ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE UPPER PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE AND POSSIBLE LOW PRES FORMS OVER AND JUST E OF THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR THE HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA COASTLINES. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 10N AND W OF 120W. A SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 KT IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA...GENERALLY TO THE NW OF A LINE FROM 30N125W TO 25N130W TO 25N140W. THESE WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN NORTHERLY SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 9 FT ALONG 30N WHICH IS ENCOUNTERING LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL. THESE NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 48 HOURS WHILE THE SWELL SHIFTS EASTWARD AND SUBSIDES SLIGHTLY TO 8 FT. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 83W AND 93W...AND S OF 03N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. THE AFFECTED AREA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY NE OVER THE 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE A PREDOMINATE SOUTHERLY SWELL IS CONTRIBUTING TO 8 TO 10 FT SEAS IN THE WATERS SE OF A LINE FROM 10N86W TO 10N119W TO 00N130W. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE HIGHER SEAS WILL NOT VARY MUCH THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ LEWITSKY 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240934 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI JUN 24 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N86W TO 12N92W TO 18N103W TO 09N118W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N118W TO 07N130W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. ...DISCUSSION... A LARGE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 28N120W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 20N136W. THIS UPPER FEATURE DOMINATES THE NW HALF OF AREA WITH A VAST AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THIS REGION. AN UPPER TROUGH IS ATTEMPTING TO APPROACH FROM THE NW REACHING FROM THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST SW TO 31N140W. THE ANTICYCLONE WILL PREVENT THE UPPER TROUGH FROM MOVING INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS SW ACROSS NW MEXICO TO A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH SEPARATES THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER NW OLD MEXICO FROM UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 21N101W. UPPER DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW S OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO WAS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR EASTERN WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 82W AND 90W...AND ALSO WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 11N TO 15N. THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC TO NEAR 120W AND WAS ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE UPPER PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE AND POSSIBLE LOW PRES FORMS OVER AND JUST E OF THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR THE HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA COASTLINES. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 10N AND W OF 120W. A SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 KT IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA...GENERALLY TO THE NW OF A LINE FROM 30N125W TO 25N130W TO 25N140W. THESE WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN NORTHERLY SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 9 FT ALONG 30N WHICH IS ENCOUNTERING LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL. THESE NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 48 HOURS WHILE THE SWELL SHIFTS EASTWARD AND SUBSIDES SLIGHTLY TO 8 FT. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 83W AND 93W...AND S OF 03N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. THE AFFECTED AREA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY NE OVER THE 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE A PREDOMINATE SOUTHERLY SWELL IS CONTRIBUTING TO 8 TO 10 FT SEAS IN THE WATERS SE OF A LINE FROM 10N86W TO 10N119W TO 00N130W. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE HIGHER SEAS WILL NOT VARY MUCH THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ LEWITSKY