000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240334 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI JUN 24 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM COSTA RICA NEAR 10N85W TO 10N92W THEN TURNS NW TO 15N100W TO 13N110W TO 9N120W TO 10N130W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 80W-89W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W-114W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG THE COAST OF OLD MEXICO WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND DRIFT FURTHER N OVER OLD MEXICO AND INTERIOR CENTRAL AMERICA BY LATE SAT. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THIS WEEKEND...BUT SHOULD LOSE ITS IDENTITY IN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... A LARGE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 30N117W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 20N135W. THIS FEATURE DOMINATES MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A VAST AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG NOTED N OF 12N W OF 110W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT MOVES EASTWARD N OF AREA THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS SW ACROSS NW MEXICO TO A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER EXTREME SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH SEPARATES THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER NW OLD MEXICO FROM UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N100W. UPPER DIFFLUENT ELY FLOW S OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO WAS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR EASTERN WATERS FROM 5N-9N AND E OF 88W TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC TO NEAR 118W AND WAS ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W-117W. FURTHER EAST AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TO A SHARP BASE OVER GUATEMALA. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE EXTREME SW CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW OVER HONDURAS. VERY LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE TO THE S AND SW OF THIS RIDGE AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE...WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER WESTERN COSTA RICA AND OVER MUCH OF PANAMA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THIS AREA IS SIGNIFICANTLY AIDING THIS CONVECTION. SIMILAR CONVECTION...ALSO IN LARGE CLUSTERS IS INTENSIFYING ACROSS GUATEMALA AND WESTERN HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...QUITE PREVALENT THERE...IS AIDING THE CONVECTION. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER PANAMA AND MUCH OF WESTERN COSTA RICA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE UPPER PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE AND POSSIBLE LOW PRES FORMS OVER AND JUST E OF THE HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADS W OVER THE TROPICS TO THE N OF 5N MERGING WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED MOISTURE OVER THE EAST PACIFIC. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 10N AND W OF 120W. A SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 KT HAS DIPPED INTO THE MARINE AREA NE OF THE RIDGE...GENERALLY TO THE NW OF A LINE FROM 30N123W TO 23N140W. IT IS USHERING IN NORTHERLY SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 9 FT ALONG 30N. THESE NE WINDS WILL SPREAD SW OVER THE NW PORTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOW LEVEL SW WINDS CONTINUE AT 15-20 KT OVER THE WATERS S OF 5N BETWEEN 85W AND 95W...WITH THE AFFECTED AREA SHIFTING NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A PREDOMINATE SOUTHERLY SWELL IS CONTRIBUTING TO 8-10 FT SEAS IN THE WATERS E OF A LINE FROM 16N110W TO 10N120W TO THE EQUATOR AT 137W...WITH THE HIGHEST OF THE SEAS CONFINED TO S OF 5N BETWEEN 106W-118W. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THESE SEAS IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO S OF 12N BETWEEN 85W-125W BY SAT. $$ AGUIRRE 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240334 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI JUN 24 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM COSTA RICA NEAR 10N85W TO 10N92W THEN TURNS NW TO 15N100W TO 13N110W TO 9N120W TO 10N130W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 80W-89W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W-114W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG THE COAST OF OLD MEXICO WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND DRIFT FURTHER N OVER OLD MEXICO AND INTERIOR CENTRAL AMERICA BY LATE SAT. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THIS WEEKEND...BUT SHOULD LOSE ITS IDENTITY IN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... A LARGE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 30N117W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 20N135W. THIS FEATURE DOMINATES MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A VAST AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG NOTED N OF 12N W OF 110W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT MOVES EASTWARD N OF AREA THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS SW ACROSS NW MEXICO TO A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER EXTREME SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH SEPARATES THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER NW OLD MEXICO FROM UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N100W. UPPER DIFFLUENT ELY FLOW S OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO WAS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR EASTERN WATERS FROM 5N-9N AND E OF 88W TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC TO NEAR 118W AND WAS ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W-117W. FURTHER EAST AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TO A SHARP BASE OVER GUATEMALA. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE EXTREME SW CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW OVER HONDURAS. VERY LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE TO THE S AND SW OF THIS RIDGE AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE...WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER WESTERN COSTA RICA AND OVER MUCH OF PANAMA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THIS AREA IS SIGNIFICANTLY AIDING THIS CONVECTION. SIMILAR CONVECTION...ALSO IN LARGE CLUSTERS IS INTENSIFYING ACROSS GUATEMALA AND WESTERN HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...QUITE PREVALENT THERE...IS AIDING THE CONVECTION. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER PANAMA AND MUCH OF WESTERN COSTA RICA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE UPPER PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE AND POSSIBLE LOW PRES FORMS OVER AND JUST E OF THE HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADS W OVER THE TROPICS TO THE N OF 5N MERGING WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED MOISTURE OVER THE EAST PACIFIC. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 10N AND W OF 120W. A SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 KT HAS DIPPED INTO THE MARINE AREA NE OF THE RIDGE...GENERALLY TO THE NW OF A LINE FROM 30N123W TO 23N140W. IT IS USHERING IN NORTHERLY SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 9 FT ALONG 30N. THESE NE WINDS WILL SPREAD SW OVER THE NW PORTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOW LEVEL SW WINDS CONTINUE AT 15-20 KT OVER THE WATERS S OF 5N BETWEEN 85W AND 95W...WITH THE AFFECTED AREA SHIFTING NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A PREDOMINATE SOUTHERLY SWELL IS CONTRIBUTING TO 8-10 FT SEAS IN THE WATERS E OF A LINE FROM 16N110W TO 10N120W TO THE EQUATOR AT 137W...WITH THE HIGHEST OF THE SEAS CONFINED TO S OF 5N BETWEEN 106W-118W. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THESE SEAS IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO S OF 12N BETWEEN 85W-125W BY SAT. $$ AGUIRRE