000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222204
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUN 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO 9N90W
TO 14N96W TO 17N104W...THEN RESUMES AT 16N105W TO 12N116W TO 
5N128W WHERE IT TRANSFORMS INTO THE ITCZ TO 4N133W AND TO BEYOND
4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
180 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 105W-111W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM 
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 84W-86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 111W-118W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE FAR NW PORTION PRECEDED BY
SOUTHERLY UPPER FLOW OBSERVED TO THE N OF 20N W OF 130W. TO ITS
E...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR 25N124W...WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SW U.S. ANOTHER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONE SW TO NEAR 18N140W. OVER THE
FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...E OF THE ANTICYCLONE...THE TAIL
END OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW INTO THE AREA FROM WESTERN 
TEXAS SW TO OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TO NEAR 20N117W. 
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLE MODERATE SUBSIDENCE 
AND RESULTANT DRY AIR COVERING THE ENTIRE AREA W OF A LINE FROM
24N106W TO 17N125W TO THE EQUATOR AT 137W.

A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS IDENTIFIED OVER WESTERN MEXICO NEAR
17N101W. A ZONE OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS ANTICYCLONE AND
THE ONE NEAR 25N124W IS CREATING A VENTILATION AREA FOR 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH TO REMAIN RATHER 
ACTIVE BETWEEN 105W-111W. THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO THIS 
CONVECTION IS SPREADING SW WITH THE AID OF MODERATE TO STRONG NE 
WINDS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 
25N124W...AND REACHES TO NEAR 128W BEFORE IT EVAPORATES IN THE 
SUBSIDENCE UPPER ENVIRONMENT.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL ELY WINDS FOUND OVER THE FAR EASTERN SECTION
OF THE AREA TO THE S OF MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
AMERICA ARE TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE IN THE FORM OF
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WESTWARD TO NEAR 102W.

AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AND RATHER WEAK RIDGE COVERS THE AREA
N OF 12N AND W OF 121W. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM THIS AFTERNOON
SHOWED A NLY SURGE OF WINDS TO 20 KT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE
FAR NORTHERN WATERS N OF 28N AND BETWEEN 128W-135W WITH SEAS TO
8 FT. OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HRS THIS AREA WILL BECOME EVIDENT TO
THE NW OF A LINE FROM 30N121W TO 24N140W...WITH WAVEWATCH 
GUIDANCE FORECASTING SEAS TO BUILD INTO THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT IN 
A N SWELL N OF 28N BETWEEN 121W-128W AT THAT TIME.

OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL 
WITH JUST A SMALL AREA OF SLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT
S OF 4N E OF 95W. BY 24 HRS THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY S-SW
15-20 KT S OF 4N BETWEEN 84W-96W WITH A S SWELL BUILDING SEAS
TO 9 FT...AND BY 48 HRS IT SHOULD BE CONFINED FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN
87W-98W. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA E OF A LINE FROM 19N104W
TO THE EQUATOR AT 135W SHOULD SEE RATHER LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS
8-10 FT PRIMARILY IN A S SWELL...HIGHEST OF THE SEAS SHOULD BE
S OF ABOUT 5N.

$$
AGUIRRE