000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221533 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUN 22 2011

CORRECTION TO CHANGE THE VALID TIME FOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
FROM 1545 UTC TO 1500 UTC

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH GOES FROM NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA NEAR 
11N73W TO NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO 9N92W TO 17N101W NEAR THE 
MEXICO COAST. IT CONTINUES FROM 14N108W TO 10N120W TO 04N127W.
THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 04N127W AND IT CONTINUES 05N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN 
INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST FROM 04N TO PANAMA 
NEAR 09N TO THE EAST OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 15N108W 12N110W 11N114W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N106W 10N108W 09N112W 
09N116W 08N120W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING 
PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST BETWEEN PANAMA ALONG 
82W AND COSTA RICA ALONG 85W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 87W 
AND 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 02N TO 07N 
BETWEEN 88W AND 104W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE 
WEST OF 100W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN 
NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 27N105W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT 
IS TO THE EAST OF THE 27N105W CYCLONIC CENTER IS PUSHING HIGH 
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 90W.

THE 1010 MB REMNANT LOW OF BEATRIZ IS NEAR 18N106W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE 
MEXICO COAST FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 101W AND 102W. THE FORECAST
IS FOR THE LOW CENTER TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A TROUGH ON THURSDAY.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N142W TO 23N137W TO 11N125W.
A DRY NORTHERLY SURGE OF 20 KT WINDS WILL DIP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE MARINE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE RIDGE...GENERALLY TO
THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 127W AND 140W ON THURSDAY. THIS WIND
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY NORTHERLY SWELLS. THE SWELLS WILL
DRIVE COMBINED SEAS TO REACH 10 FT LATE FRIDAY ALONG 30N
BETWEEN 120W AND 130W.

LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY 15 TO 20 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH 
OF THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 09N BETWEEN 108W 
AND 115W. MIXED SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 8 FT SEAS 
IN THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 79W AND 
100W...AND IN THE DEEP TROPICS TO THE SOUTH OF 05N BETWEEN
110W AND 130W.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SLOWLY NEAR
10N90W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. IT WILL BE ALONG THE 
EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT IS PARALLEL TO THE
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. 

$$
MT