000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220256
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUN 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.
  
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COAST RICA TO 6N85W TO 9N90W
TO 15N94W...THEN RESUMES FROM 16N106W TO 12N116W TO 6N127W
...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ TO BEYOND 5N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS 180 NM SW OF THE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS LOCATED WELL W OF THE AREA WITH ITS ENVELOPE 
OF CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION. IT IS RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW 
ALOFT TO THE N OF 19N AND W OF 130W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXTENDS S THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND
THEN SW TO ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 24N118W. TO
ITS W...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYLONE IS LOCATED NEAR 27N122W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING NNE TO ACROSS THE FAR PACIFIC NW REGION OF THE 
U.S. SE THESE FEATURES...MODERATE NE TO E UPPER LEVEL FLOW 
PREVAILS ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS...AND IS SPREADING MONSOONAL 
RELATED MOISTURE SW TOWARDS TO NEAR 124W BEFORE IT EVAPORATES IN 
THE LARGE MODERATE SUBSIDENCE REGION INDUCING DRY AIR ALOFT.

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS...THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL
STORM BEATRIZ WAS LOCATED NEAR NEAR 19N107W MOVING W AT 9 KT.
ONLY WINDS OF 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW IN THE
SE QUADRANT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT
124 HOURS OR LESS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES.

A WEAKER BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF THE 18N AND W OF 125W. 
A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE OF 20 KT WILL SPREAD S TO N OF 27N BETWEEN
127W-135W BY LATE WED NIGHT...AND NW OF A LINE FROM 30N126W TO 
26N133W BY THU NIGHT.

LOW LEVEL SW MONSOONAL WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE FOUND WITHIN 180 NM 
SE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 16N106W TO NEAR 9N114W...BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH TO 20 KT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY 
SWELLS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 8 FT SEAS IN THE WATERS S OF 8N 
BETWEEN 117W AND 80W. THIS SW MONSOONAL FLOW IS FORECAST TO 
DIMINISH SOME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WHILE A NEW PULSE OF 
LONG PERIOD SW SWELL MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THE 
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. 

$$
AGUIRRE