000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUN 21 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE BEATRIZ WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AT 2100 UTC
NEAR 19.0N 106.5W OR ABOUT 110 NM...OR 175 KM SSW OF CABO 
CORRIENTES MEXICO MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...WITH THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED NOW HAVING DIMINISHED TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 
DEEP CONVECTION WITH BEATRIZ RAPIDLY DISSIPATED DURING THE 
AFTERNOON AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO LOSE ITS CHARACTERISTICS. 
TO THE SE OF BEATRIZ SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN SWLY MONSOONAL FLOW DEPICTED WITHIN 
180 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 9N116W TO 15N106W TO 18N103W. BEATRIZ 
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR 19.1N 
109.OW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 19.1N 
112.1W IN 72 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE WATERS. 
THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED 
ALONG THE COASTS OF OF THE STATES OF 
GUERRERO...JALISCO...COLIMA...AND MICHOACAN IN SOUTHWESTERN 
MEXICO WHICH COULD POSSIBLY LEAD TO LIFE-THREATENING FLASH 
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
  
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN PANAMA TO 6N85W TO 7N93W
...THEN RESUMES FROM 15N107W TO 9N118W TO 6N124W TO 5N130W
...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS 120 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 91W 
AND 93W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS LOCATED WELL W OF THE AREA WITH ITS ENVELOPE 
OF CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION. IT IS RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW 
ALOFT TO THE N OF 19N AND W OF 130W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXTENDS S THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND
THEN SW TO ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 24N118W. TO
ITS W...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYLONE IS LOCATED NEAR 27N122W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING NNE TO ACROSS THE FAR PACIFIC NW REGION OF THE 
U.S. SE THESE FEATURES...MODERATE NE TO E UPPER LEVEL FLOW 
PREVAILS ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS...AND IS SPREADING MONSOONAL 
RELATED MOISTURE SW TOWARDS TO NEAR 124W BEFORE IT EVAPORATES IN 
THE LARGE MODERATE SUBSIDENCE REGION INDUCING DRY AIR ALOFT.

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS...A WEAKER BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE 
AREA N OF THE 18N AND W OF 125W. A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE OF 20 KT 
WILL SPREAD S TO NW OF A LINE FROM 30N126W TO 26N133W TO 24N140W
WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH SEAS TO 8 FT.

LOW LEVEL SW MONSOONAL WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 20 KT S OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH TO 08N BETWEEN 117W AND 100W. LONG PERIOD 
SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 8 FT SEAS IN THE WATERS S 
OF 8N BETWEEN 117W AND 80W. THIS SW MONSOONAL FLOW IS FORECAST 
TO DIMINISH SOME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WHILE A NEW PULSE 
OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THE 
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. 

$$
AGUIRRE