000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210959
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUN 21 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE BEATRIZ IS CENTERED NEAR 18.8N 104.3W OR ABOUT 15 NM S 
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING N-NW OR 330 DEG AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 977 MB WITHIN IN AN 25 
NM DIAMETER EYE...WITH THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED AT 80 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY 
OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER SURROUNDED BY SCATTERED MODERATE 
AND ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER. MAXIMUM 
SEAS HEIGHTS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 FT. HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE 
POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE LIKELY ALONG THE 
MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. IF THE CYCLONE DOES NOT 
MOVE FURTHER INLAND THIS MORNING THE INTENSITY WILL PERSIST 
UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE WATERS TONIGHT. 
SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
  
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM COSTA RICA AT 10N85W TO 
15N95W..THEN BECOMES DISTORTED OVER THE PACIFIC BETWEEN 95W AND 
105W DUE TO TROPICAL CYCLONE BEATRIZ. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES 
TO THE SW OF BEATRIZ NEAR 15N108W...AND EXTENDS SW THROUGH 
10N120W TO 06N127W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ 
BEGINS...AND EXTENDS W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
A LINE FROM 12N89W TO 08N92W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF MODERATE 
CONVECTION ARE FORMING N OF 04N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W. LOCALLY 
OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE 
OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS OF THE MONSOON TROF AND ITCZ 
FROM 115W TO BEYOND 140W. 

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER CYCLONE IS LOCATED WELL W OF THE AREA WITH ITS ENVELOPE 
OF CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING E OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA RESULTING 
IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE N OF 15N AND W OF 130W...WITH 
UPPER MOISTURE NOTED NEAR 25N139W. AN UPPER CYCLONE HAS 
DEVELOPED OVER N CENTRAL OLD MEXICO NEAR 29N105W WITH AN UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 22N115W. AN UPPER ANTICYLONE IS CENTERED 
AT 27N120W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO BEYOND 35N125W. EXCEPT 
AS MENTIONED...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY N OF 24N W OF 107W WITH 
THIS DRY AIR EXTENDING N OVER ACROSS ALL OF ARIZONA AND NEW 
MEXICO AND OVER W TEXAS.

A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE CONTINUES OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 
01N130W. JUST TO THE E...AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 05N140W 
TO 02S140W...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY EVAPORATING UPPER MOISTURE. 
OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY S OF 22N TO THE W OF 122W... 
AND SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE BEATRIZ 
HAS AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A FAIRLY SHARP CREST AT 
22N124W. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO A 
CREST OVER THE BORDER OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEATRIZ...AND ALSO THE CONVECTION ALONG THE 
MONSOON TROUGH TO THE E OF 100W AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. MOST OF 
THE RESULTANT DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED SE IN THE STRONG 
NE UPPER FLOW TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 90W AND 120W,

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 
THE 10N TO THE W OF 118W. THE GRADIENT NE OF THE RIDGE IS 
MAINTAINING NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PULSING AT 15 TO 20 KT 
ALONG THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS 
MORNING...BUT THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX LATER TODAY WITH 
WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT. A DRY NORTHERLY SURGE AT 
20 KT WILL DIP S OVER THE MARINE AREA TO THE N OF 25N BETWEEN 
125W AND 135W ON WED NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY NORTHERLY SWELLS WHICH 
WILL DRIVE COMBINED SEAS UP TO 10 FT FRI ALONG 30N BETWEEN 120W 
AND 130W. 

LOW LEVEL SW WINDS CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KT S OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH TO ALONG 08N BETWEEN 107W AND 90W. SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE 
CONTRIBUTING TO 8 FT SEAS IN THE WATERS S OF 08N BETWEEN 117W 
AND 78W. THIS SW FLOW WILL DIMINISH SOME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
DAYS. 

$$
NELSON