000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210253
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUN 21 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
BEATRIZ HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE LAST SEVERAL 
HOURS...AND HAS INTENSIFIED TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. HURRICANE 
BEATRIZ IS CENTERED NEAR 18.0N 103.5W AT 21/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 75 
NM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING NNW OR 340 DEG AT 10 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. WHILE THE AREAL EXTENT 
OF THE CONVECTION AROUND BEATRIZ HAS DECREASED...STRONG 
CONVECTION PERSISTS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CENTER. HEAVY RAINFALL 
BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE 
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF GUERRERO...MICHOACAN...AND COLIMA. 
SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
  
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO SE OF TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ AT 
16N100W THEN CONTINUES FROM 14N105W TO 13N119W 06N128W. ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 06N128W TO 06N140W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION NOTED 
WITH TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 90 NM S SIDE OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 98W TO 100W.

...DISCUSSION...
A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS WERE NOTED IN EARLIER 
ASCAT DATA CONVERGING INTO THE STORM...MAINLY N OF 08N BETWEEN 
95W AND 115W. SEAS ARE LIKELY REACHING UP TO 13 FT IN THE AREA 
OF THE FRESH TO STRONG SW FLOW...LARGELY IN SW SWELL WITH 
PERIODS UP TO 10 SECONDS. THIS FLOW IS PUSHING TOWARD THE 
COASTLINE OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO. MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF THE 
COAST IN GUERRERO WHERE THE MOIST SW FLOW IS CONVERGING INTO THE 
COAST.

FURTHER SOUTH...SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW IS MOVING INTO 
THE AREA MAINLY SOUTH OF 05N W OF 110W. THE WAVEWATCH III AND 
ECWAVE MODELS WERE SLIGHTLY HIGH IN THEIR INITIALIZATIONS OF 
THIS SWELL COMPARED TO ALTIMETER DATA FROM EARLIER...BUT THE 
GENERAL FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 8 TO 9 
FT MOVING N OF THE EQUATOR AS FAR AS 10N BY LATE TUE.

FURTHER WEST...SURFACE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS WEAKENING AS A 
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NE PACIFIC. THIS IS RESULTING IN A 
FAIRLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT W OF 110W...EQUATING TO MODEST TRADE 
WIND FLOW. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED W OF 120W...AND 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

$$
CHRISTENSEN