000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200249
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUN 20 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ IS CENTERED NEAR 14.9N 102.1W OR ABOUT 
170 NM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MOVING NW AT 10 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM TO THE SE AND 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE CENTER.  
SEAS ARE LESS THAN 12 FT CURRENTLY...BUT WILL BUILD TO AS HIGH 
AS 23 FT WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE CENTER BY LATE MON IN STRONG SW 
FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CARRIES THE SYSTEM N-NW OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS AND INCREASES THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM TO A 
MINIMAL HURRICANE BY TUE. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
  
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ AT 15N102W TO 
08N124W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N135W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 115W.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...1033 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 35N151W 
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT SW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING 
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. FRESH NE FLOW ON THE SE 
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRES WILL DIMINISH BELOW 30 KT THIS 
EVENING. FURTHER EAST...FRESH NW TO N WINDS OFF THE COAST OF 
CENTRAL BAJA...BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA...WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TUE AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. 
INCREASED SW FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH HAD BEEN AIDING 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF THE TROUGH AXIS 
BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. THIS IS NOW DIMINISHING...BUT WILL PULSE 
AS FRESH SW FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE IN THIS AREA. 

E OF 110W...ASCAT AND WINDSAT DATA FROM EARLIER SHOWED INCREASED 
S TO SW FLOW MAINLY N OF 02N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W...ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF BEATRIZ. SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL 
INCREASINGLY DOMINATE THE AREA S OF 20N E OF 110W THROUGH 
MIDWEEK...IN PART TO THE ENHANCED MONSOON FLOW S OF 
BEATRIZ...BUT ALSO DUE TO INCREASE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY 
SWELL. CONVECTION WILL PERSIST S OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA DUE TO 
CONVERGENT FLOW. 


$$
CHRISTENSEN