000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192208
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUN 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 2100Z...TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ IS CENTERED NEAR 14.3N 101.2W 
OR ABUT 180 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MOVING 
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 
KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD 
WITHIN 180 NM TO THE SW AND 90 NM NE OF THE CENTER. ELSEWHERE 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 
11N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL AREAS ALONG OAXACA AND 
GUERRERO STATES. SEAS ARE LESS THAN 12 FT CURRENTLY...BUT WILL 
BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 23 FT WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE CENTER BY LATE 
MON IN STRONG SW FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CARRIES THE SYSTEM 
N-NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND INCREASES THE INTENSITY OF THE 
SYSTEM TO A MINIMAL HURRICANE BY TUE. SEE THE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.
  
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 10N90W TO 15N95W TO 
TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ AT 14N101W TO 06N127W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
06N127W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 270 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 119W.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...1033 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 35N151W 
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT SW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING 
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. FRESH NE FLOW ON THE SE 
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRES WILL DIMINISH BELOW 30 KT THIS 
EVENING. FURTHER EAST...FRESH NW TO N WINDS OFF THE COAST OF 
CENTRAL BAJA...BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA...WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TUE AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. 
INCREASED SW FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH HAD BEEN AIDING 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF THE TROUGH AXIS 
BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. THIS IS NOW DIMINISHING...BUT WILL PULSE 
AS FRESH SW FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE IN THIS AREA. 

E OF 110W...ASCAT AND WINDSAT DATA FROM EARLIER SHOWED INCREASED 
S TO SW FLOW MAINLY N OF 02N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W...ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF BEATRIZ. SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL 
INCREASINGLY DOMINATE THE AREA S OF 20N E OF 110W THROUGH 
MIDWEEK...IN PART TO THE ENHANCED MONSOON FLOW S OF 
BEATRIZ...BUT ALSO DUE TO INCREASE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY 
SWELL. CONVECTION WILL PERSIST S OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA DUE TO 
CONVERGENT FLOW. 


$$
CHRISTENSEN