000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191545
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUN 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E LIES NEAR 14N100W AT 
19/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 175 NM S-SW OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO 
MOVING W-NW AT 09 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 90 NM E AND 180 NM W 
SEMICIRCLES OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E WHILE 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION LIES 
ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 93W AND 104W...INCLUDING THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CARRIES THE SYSTEM 
N-NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND INCREASES THE INTENSITY OF THE 
SYSTEM TO A TROPICAL STORM THIS EVENING AND A MINIMAL HURRICANE 
BY TUE MORNING. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
  
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86WW TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
TWO-E AT 14N100W TO 07N129W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N129W TO 
BEYOND 07N140W. LOCALLY BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE 
NOTED MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 90W...FROM 05N TO THE MEXICAN COAST 
BETWEEN 90W AND 105W...AND FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 105W AND 
120W. ASIDE FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION NOTED IN THE SPECIAL 
FEATURES SECTION WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E...SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 270 NM S OF 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 119W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ALSO LIES N OF 03N E OF 81W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF 
PANAMA.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...A BLANKET OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS LIES OVER MUCH OF 
THE AREA N OF 13N W OF 110W. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DOMINATES THE 
REGION WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE 1032 MB HIGH 
CENTER NEAR 37N147W THROUGH 31N130W TO 13N115W. FRESH NE TRADE 
WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE AREA N OF 25N W OF 132W ACCORDING TO 
THE 0702 UTC ASCAT PASS. BY MON MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL 
APPROACH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH FROM THE NW AND WEAKEN 
IT...DIMINISHING THE TRADE WINDS. THE NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA MON...BRINGING 
SEAS TO 8 FT IN N CENTRAL WATERS BY MON EVENING. ON THE EASTERN 
SIDE OF THE RIDGE...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 
TROUGHING OVER THE SW UNITED STATES IS SUPPORTING FRESH NW WINDS 
ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH STRONG WINDS OVER THE 
CENTRAL PORTION...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY MON 
MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE INTERIOR WESTERN 
UNITED STATES INTO FAR NE WATERS. IT IS SEPARATED FROM AN UPPER 
CYCLONE AT 25N140W BY A RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM 
AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 37N132W...LIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALONG 
125W N OF 23N AND CONTINUES EASTWARD ALONG 23N INTO CENTRAL 
MEXICO. THE UPPER CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE TO THE NW AS 
THE ANTICYCLONE DROPS TO THE S AND REORGANIZES NEAR 24N120W BY 
MON NIGHT. OVER THE TROPICS...CONDITIONS ARE REASONABLY QUIET W 
OF 120W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NOTED. BETWEEN 110W 
AND 120W...CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH 
SECTION ABOVE IS BEING ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE SE 
WINDS ON THE SW SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS AND 
EASTERLY WINDS S OF 06N.

E OF 110W...BROAD LOW TO MID-LEVEL TROUGHING DOMINATES THE AREA 
S OF 20N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W WHICH INCLUDES TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
TWO-E. CONVECTION OVER THE REMAINDER OF THIS REGION IS DESCRIBED 
IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. A BREAK IN THE DEEP 
CONVECTION IS NOTED BETWEEN 81W AND THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH TWO-E WHERE 20-40 KT NE WINDS ALOFT S OF 10N ARE INHIBITING 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS AREA OF STRONG NE SHEAR 
IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS...FURTHER INHIBITING CONVECTION. TWO-E IS FORECAST TO 
REMAIN N OF THIS AREA OF INCREASED NE SHEAR DURING THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS.

$$
SCHAUER