000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172253
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUN 17 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CONVECTION IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR AN ELONGATED AREA 
OF LOW PRES S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 12N94W. THE 
STRONGEST CONVECTION WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS REMAINS W OF 
THE CENTER POSITION. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST GRADUAL 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH A 
MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT 
SLOWLY MOVES IN W TO NW DIRECTION.
  
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N89W TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N93W 1008 
MB TO 11N100W TO 11N113W TO 07N125W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
07N125W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 98W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W 
AND 95W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRES NEAR 12N93W WILL CONTINUE TO BE 
THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE E OF 110W. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 
TO 30 KT S OF MONSOON TROUGH MAINLY IN A BROAD SWATH WITHIN 500 
NM TO THE SE OF THE LOW...AS THE LOW DEEPENS THROUGH 48 HOURS. 
SEAS WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY TO 11 FT IN THIS AREA. FURTHER TO 
THE SE...CONVERGENCE OF MODERATE SW WINDS WILL BRING CLUSTERS OF 
CONVECTION THROUGH PANAMA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. 

FURTHER WEST...AN UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED NEAR 23N137W... 
BRINGING DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE REGION W OF 
120W...EFFECTIVELY PREVENT ALL CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ/MONSOON 
TROUGH. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1830 UTC DEPICTED FRESH NE WINDS N OF 
25N W OF 135W. THIS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT LONG 
PERIOD N SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE S OF 
30N...WITH 8 FT SEAS REACHING 20N BY SAT INTO SUN.

$$
CHRISTENSEN





000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172253
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUN 17 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CONVECTION IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR AN ELONGATED AREA 
OF LOW PRES S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 12N94W. THE 
STRONGEST CONVECTION WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS REMAINS W OF 
THE CENTER POSITION. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST GRADUAL 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH A 
MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT 
SLOWLY MOVES IN W TO NW DIRECTION.
  
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N89W TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N93W 1008 
MB TO 11N100W TO 11N113W TO 07N125W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
07N125W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 98W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W 
AND 95W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRES NEAR 12N93W WILL CONTINUE TO BE 
THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE E OF 110W. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 
TO 30 KT S OF MONSOON TROUGH MAINLY IN A BROAD SWATH WITHIN 500 
NM TO THE SE OF THE LOW...AS THE LOW DEEPENS THROUGH 48 HOURS. 
SEAS WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY TO 11 FT IN THIS AREA. FURTHER TO 
THE SE...CONVERGENCE OF MODERATE SW WINDS WILL BRING CLUSTERS OF 
CONVECTION THROUGH PANAMA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. 

FURTHER WEST...AN UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED NEAR 23N137W... 
BRINGING DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE REGION W OF 
120W...EFFECTIVELY PREVENT ALL CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ/MONSOON 
TROUGH. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1830 UTC DEPICTED FRESH NE WINDS N OF 
25N W OF 135W. THIS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT LONG 
PERIOD N SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE S OF 
30N...WITH 8 FT SEAS REACHING 20N BY SAT INTO SUN.

$$
CHRISTENSEN