000 AXPZ20 KNHC 171604 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI JUN 17 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS S OF THE MEXICAN AND GUATEMALA BORDER...AND IS ANALYZED AS A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 11N93W. THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE CONSOLIDATED DURING THE MORNING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTION...OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG INTENSITY...IS WITHIN 180 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM IN THE W AND NW QUADRANTS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES IN W TO NW DIRECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 10N100W TO 10N110W TO 10N121W AT WHICH POINT LOW LEVELS AND 10M STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS SW TO BEYOND 6N140W. LOCALLY OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOTED N OF 2N E OF 98W WITH SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-9N E OF 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 105W-109W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 7N91W TO 4N96W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 30N122W AND TO A COL REGION NEAR 27N127W. FROM THERE IT CONTINUES SW TO AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE 22.5N138W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING S TO BASE OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 13.5N140W. UPPER MOISTURE IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CYCLONE...AND ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE ABOUT 120 NM NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER W CENTRAL OLD MEXICO AT 23N104W WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N AND E OF 121W AS A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONE SW TO 14N120W TO 7N137W. MODERATE ELY AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE IS ADVECTION UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...AND THAT WITH ITCZ CONVECTION WESTWARD TO NEAR 113W. MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL IS NOTED TO THE NW OF THE ANTICYCLONE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO TO AS FAR E AS EASTERN TEXAS. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR NW GUATEMALA. AN UPPER ANTICYLONE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN RESULTING IN BROAD RIDGING AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 98W. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY MOIST E OF 98W AND N OF 5N BETWEEN 98W-106W AS WELL AS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 98W-110W. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA W OF 115W. THE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING N TO NE WINDS OF 20 KT N OF THE RIDGE...ROUGHLY N OF 22N W OF 117W...WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN A N SWELL. THE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE AREA TRANSLATED WESTWARD. $$ AGUIRRE 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 171604 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI JUN 17 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS S OF THE MEXICAN AND GUATEMALA BORDER...AND IS ANALYZED AS A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 11N93W. THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE CONSOLIDATED DURING THE MORNING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTION...OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG INTENSITY...IS WITHIN 180 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM IN THE W AND NW QUADRANTS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES IN W TO NW DIRECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 10N100W TO 10N110W TO 10N121W AT WHICH POINT LOW LEVELS AND 10M STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS SW TO BEYOND 6N140W. LOCALLY OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOTED N OF 2N E OF 98W WITH SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-9N E OF 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 105W-109W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 7N91W TO 4N96W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 30N122W AND TO A COL REGION NEAR 27N127W. FROM THERE IT CONTINUES SW TO AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE 22.5N138W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING S TO BASE OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 13.5N140W. UPPER MOISTURE IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CYCLONE...AND ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE ABOUT 120 NM NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER W CENTRAL OLD MEXICO AT 23N104W WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N AND E OF 121W AS A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONE SW TO 14N120W TO 7N137W. MODERATE ELY AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE IS ADVECTION UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...AND THAT WITH ITCZ CONVECTION WESTWARD TO NEAR 113W. MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL IS NOTED TO THE NW OF THE ANTICYCLONE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO TO AS FAR E AS EASTERN TEXAS. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR NW GUATEMALA. AN UPPER ANTICYLONE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN RESULTING IN BROAD RIDGING AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 98W. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY MOIST E OF 98W AND N OF 5N BETWEEN 98W-106W AS WELL AS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 98W-110W. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA W OF 115W. THE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING N TO NE WINDS OF 20 KT N OF THE RIDGE...ROUGHLY N OF 22N W OF 117W...WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN A N SWELL. THE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE AREA TRANSLATED WESTWARD. $$ AGUIRRE