000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170243
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JUN 17 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
STATIONARY CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AROUND AN ELONGATED AREA OF 
LOW PRES WITH A MEAN CENTER NEAR 12N94W. A TROPICAL WAVE THAT 
MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA EARLIER TODAY HAS BECOME 
WRAPPED INTO THIS BROAD LOW PRES AREA AND IS NOT LONGER A 
COHERENT FEATURE IN THE EAST PACIFIC. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 15Z 
SHOWED MODERATE WIND FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE. CONVECTION HAS 
DIMINISHED ENOUGH THAT THE LOW HAS TEMPORARILY BECOME TO WEAK TO 
CLASSIFY VIA DVORAK METHODOLOGY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE MORE IN LINE 
SHOWING GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL 
DAYS AS IT DRIFTS WEST. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO 
REDEVELOP...INCLUDING INTERACTIONS WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION 
ALONG THE COASTS OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. HEAVY 
RAINFALL ALONG COAST REMAINS LIKELY GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF 
THE CENTER TO THE COASTLINE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE WITHIN 
120 NM N OF THE LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...REACHING AS 
HIGH AS 30 KT AND 12 FT. LIKEWISE SW FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE IN A BROAD SWATH WELL TO THE SOUTH 
OF THE LOW OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...WITH SEAS TO 12 FT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 13N113W TO 07N130W THEN 
CONTINUING AS THE ITCZ TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 105W. 

...DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN DRIVER FOR WEATHER E OF 110W WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF 
THE LOW PRES NEAR 12N94W. FURTHER TO THE SE...CONVERGENCE OF 
MODERATE SW WINDS WILL BRING CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION THROUGH 
PANAMA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. 

FURTHER WEST...AN UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED NEAR 28N125W...WITH 
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING TO 15N135W. THIS IS BRINGING DRY AND 
SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE REGION W OF 120W...EFFECTIVELY PREVENT 
ALL CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH. ASCAT AND WINDSAT 
DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT FRESH NE WINDS N OF 25N W OF 135W. THIS 
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH FRI...BUT LONG PERIOD N SWELL OF 8 TO 10 
FT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE S OF 30N...WITH 8 FT SEAS REACHING 20N 
BY SAT.

$$
CHRISTENSEN