000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162204
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUN 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
STATIONARY LOW PRES CENTER 1008 MB AT 12N93W HAS SLOWLY BECOME 
MORE ORGANIZED. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR 30C AND 
WARM MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. IN 
ADDITION...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
THROUGH NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR...AND IS STARTING TO INTERACT 
WITH THE LOW AND MONSOON TROUGH. A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL 
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. DYNAMICAL 
MODEL GUIDANCE MOVES THE SYSTEM AS A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE 
TO THE E-NE HUGGING THE W CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST OVER THE NEXT 48 
TO 72 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY PULSING 
DOWN...THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MOIST...AND ABUNDANT RAINFALL IS 
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO 
BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND IMMINENT FLOODING TO AFFECTED COASTAL 
AND MOUNTAIN LAND AREAS REGARDLESS OF ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N87W TO 12N91W TO 14N107W TO 
07N130W THEN CONTINUING AS THE ITCZ FROM 06N135W TO 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 03N TO 04N BETWEEN 86W AND 
89W. 

...DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN DRIVER FOR WEATHER E OF 110W WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF 
THE LOW PRES NEAR 12N93W. SW WINDS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL 
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH FRI AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND 
INTERACTS WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE E PACIFIC. 
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE N OF LOW PRES ALONG THE COASTS OF 
GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. SEAS WILL INCREASE 
ACCORDINGLY...WITH 8 TO 12 FT SEAS LIKELY IN THE AREA OF STRONG 
SW FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE OTHER 
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST GIVEN THE 
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW TO LAND.

FURTHER WEST...AN UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED NEAR 28N125W...WITH 
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING TO 15N135W. THIS IS BRINGING DRY AND 
SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE REGION W OF 120W...EFFECTIVELY PREVENT 
ALL CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH. ASCAT AND WINDSAT 
DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT FRESH NE WINDS N OF 25N W OF 135W. THIS 
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH FRI...BUT LONG PERIOD N SWELL OF 8 TO 10 
FT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE S OF 30N...WITH 8 FT SEAS REACHING 20N 
BY SAT.

$$
CHRISTENSEN