000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161601
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUN 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
STATIONARY LOW PRES CENTER 1008 MB AT 12N93W HAS SLOWLY BECOME 
MORE ORGANIZED AS EXPECTED.  SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN 
NEAR 30C...WARM MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUE MOVING INTO REGION...
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT 
POINT TOWARD A GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.  DYNAMICAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE MOVES SYSTEM AS A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE E-NE 
HUGGING THE W CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD.  
AREA COVERAGE BY MOIST AIR MASS IS LARGE AND ABUNDANT RAINFALL 
IS EXPECTED.  SYSTEM LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND 
IMMINENT FLOODING TO AFFECTED COASTAL AND MOUNTAIN LAND AREAS 
REGARDLESS OF ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 13N98W TO 13N108W TO 
11N115W THEN CONTINUE AS ITCZ FROM 08N125W TO 06N131W TO 
08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS FROM 110W  
TO 114W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS FROM 125W TO 131W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND FROM 32N123W TO WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC 
VORTEX AT 28N125W THEN CONTINUE TO 11N140W.  BROAD ANTICYCLONIC 
GYRE AT 23N103W CONTROL FLOW FROM 95W TO 120W AND DRAWS TROPICAL 
MOISTURE DEBRIS FROM ITCZ NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD TO NW MEXICO.

WEAK SHALLOW TROUGH BETWEEN RIDGE ABOVE AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE 
CENTERED OVER WRN COLOMBIA PROMPTS MODERATE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT 
OVER SURFACE LOW PRES DISCUSSED IN SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION.     

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS...
ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH BRINGS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST AIR 
MASS TO FEED NUMEROUS DEEP CONVECTION AROUND LOW PRES CENTER AT 
12N93W AND SCATTERED TSTMS ELSEWHERE E OF 100W.  

HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA EXTENDS RIDGE SE TO 12N120W BRINGING 
FRESH NE BREEZE N OF 24N AND MODERATE TRADES FROM 10N TO 24N.  
N-NW SWELLS GENERATED BY GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG NRN CALIFORNIA 
COAST STILL AFFECT E PAC N OF 22N.

$$
WALLY BARNES