000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160259
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUN 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 11N114W TO 09N120W TO 
09N125W...THEN CONTINUING AS THE ITCZ TO 09N135W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 82W AND 
85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
30 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 97W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...
E OF 110W...1007 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 11N92W...ALONG THE 
MONSOON TROUGH...AND AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING 
FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE COAST OF GUATEMALA. LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE OF MODERATE SW FLOW INTO THE LOW S OF THE 
MONSOON...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE NEAR THE BASE OF THE 
UPPER TROUGH ARE TOGETHER ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION 
AROUND THE LOW PRES. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION HAD BEEN FOCUSED 
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE LOW PRES...AND IS 
CURRENTLY DIMINISHING. WINDS ARE GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE 
WHOLE AREA E OF 110W AS NOTED BY TAO BUOYS AND SCATTEROMETER 
DATA FROM AROUND 16Z. A PAIR OF ALTIMETER PASSES FROM EARLIER 
TODAY SHOWED SEAS MOSTLY AROUND 6 TO 7 FT MOST LIKELY IN 
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN 
IN AGREEMENT SHOWING THE LOW TO DEVELOP...LIKELY WITH THE AID OF 
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE FAR 
E PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...INTERACTING WITH THE 
EASTERN-MOST PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE GFS REMAINS THE 
MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL AND IS TOO QUICK. EXPECT SLOW DEVELOPMENT 
OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS TO AROUND 300 NM S OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BY SAT...TO THE S OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE SETTING UP 
OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO. 

W OF 110W...AN UPPER CYCLONE REMAINS PARKED OVER 25N127W...WITH 
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 11N130W. THIS IS 
SUPPLYING DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR OVER THE ENTIRE AREA W OF 120W. 
HOWEVER...UPPER DIVERGENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING MODEST 
CONVECTION AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 114W FROM 
11N114W TO 15N113W. A 19Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE WINDS TO 20 
KT...GENERALLY N OF 25N W OF 125W. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM 16Z 
SHOWED SEAS AROUND 5 TO 7 FT...ALTHOUGH WITH HIGHER SEAS JUST N 
OF THE AREA. THIS IS LIKELY N SWELL THAT WILL PUSHING S OF 30N 
BY TONIGHT...REACHING AS FAR S AS 20N BY LATE FRI AS IT DECAYS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN