000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151550
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUN 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTEND FROM 09N83W TO 09N94W TO 12N106W TO 
11N113W THEN CONTINUE AS ITCZ TO 09N130W TO 06N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM N AND 360 NM S OF 
AXIS E OF 100W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N 
AND 60 NM S OF AXIS FROM 113N TO 120W. 

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS FROM 32N122W TO WELL DEFINED 
CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 24N128W THEN CONTINUE TO 00N132W.  VERY DRY 
AIR MASS ALONG AND W OF AXIS.  DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WITH ANTICYCLONIC
GYRE AT 21N109W CONTROLS FLOW THROUGH MID REGION OF BASIN 
ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPIPCAL MOISTURE N ON ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY 
UNTO BAJA CALIFORNIA.  WEAK SHALLOW TROUGH ALOFT BETWEEN RIDGE 
AND DOWNSTREAM ANTICYCLONE OVER NW COLOMBIA INDUCE UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENT PATTERN THAT ENHANCES SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION OVER 
SECTION OF MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHING ON THE SURFACE.  WHILE NO 
TROPICAL ORGANIZATION HAS BEEN NOTED IN AREA...CONDITION REMAIN 
FAVORABLE AND MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS SLOW DEVELOPMENT. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER E PAC SE CORNER WITHIN 48 HRS FROM THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN COULD BE NEEDED TRIGGER TO INJECT LOW LEVEL 
UPLIFT AND DEVELOP AFOREMENTION TROPICAL CYCLONE...OR VORTICITY 
FROM MONSOON TROUGH MAY CLICK IT. EITHER SCENARIO MAY ACTIVATE 
GENESIS.  REGION CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.  

WEAKENING HIGH PRES CENTER 1030 MB NW OF AREA EXTEND RIDGE TO 
20N120W.  TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE AND TROUGH OVER 
CALIFORNIA PROMPTS GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 30N AND SPREADS 
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS INTO E PAC N OF 25N W OF 130W.

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 113W FROM 07N-15N PROVIDES UPLIFT FOR 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG MONSOON TROUGH E OF TROUGH 
AXIS.  NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT NOTED NOR EXPECTED WITHIN 48 HRS.

SW CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL EXTEND N ACROSS E PAC WATERS E OF 135W 
MIXING WITH NE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND NLY 
SWELL ENTERING N WATERS LATER TODAY. 

$$
WALLY BARNES