000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUN 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N84W TO 09N96W TO 11N108W TO 
07N115W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 07N115W 
TO 08N132W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 84W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 88W AND 
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
FROM 108N TO 111W. 

...DISCUSSION...

DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOTED NEAR A 
1008 MB LOW PRES EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND LOCATED NEAR 
8N85W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT 
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS HELPING TO 
INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. INTERACTION OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH AND AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN 
WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW PRES OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS AS IT 
DRIFTS WWD. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A LOW FORMING IN THIS 
AREA...AND SLOWLY DEEPENING THROUGH THU. THE GFS REMAINS THE 
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS TO THE SE 
QUADRANT OF THE LO CENTER IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OTHER MAJOR 
MODELS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY ENHANCED SW FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK 
BETWEEN 90W AND 100W S OF 12N. 

HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST 
REGION TO NEAR 19N116W. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH SHIP 
REPORTS ARE SHOWING N TO NE WINDS AROUND 20 KT FROM N OF 19N W 
OF 130W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS RIDGE. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE RIDGE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRES OVER WESTERN MEXICO IS 
PRODUCING NW WINDS OF 20 KT ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PARTICULARLY N OF 24N AND E OF 115W. THE 0502 UTC ASCAT PASS 
VERIFIED THESE WIND SPEEDS. N SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 FT 
WILL INVADE THE N WATERS TODAY THROUGH THU NIGHT. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELL EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER MOST OF 
THE PACIFIC WATERS E OF 135W MIXING WITH NE SWELL ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THESE SWELLS WILL ALSO MIX WITH THE 
NLY SWELL FORECAST TO ENTER THE N WATERS TODAY. 

$$
GR