000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142143 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE JUN 14 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 12N108W TO 09N123W THEN CONTINUES AS THE ITCZ TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 03N TO 09N E OF 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S BETWEEN 90W AND 95W...AND FROM 180 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 110W...CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVING BEEN FIRING ALONG AN UNDULATION IN THE MONSOON TROUGH SOUTH OF TEHUANTEPEC BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. THIS UNDULATION IS DUE TO THE COMPLEX INTERACTIONS OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH REMNANT ENERGY OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT ENTERED THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AND FAR E PACIFIC OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE BEEN NORTHERLY 15 TO 20 KT SINCE THE EARLY MORNING...AS WELL AS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC PER A 16Z ASCAT PASS. THIS FUNNELING IS LIKELY DUE TO A TIGHTER GRADIENT IMPOSED BY A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER PRES FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. ADDING THE LIST OF INGREDIENTS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED FROM FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO. DIVERGENCE ALOFT AT THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THIS TROUGH MAY BE AIDING IN THE CONVECTION. WHILE THE CONVECTION IS STARTING TO DIMINISH FOR NOW...THE PROCESSES LISTED ABOVE REMAIN IN PLACE...AND GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...CONVECTION IS ACTIVE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WHERE S TO SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW IS CONVERGING WITH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW...ON THE W SIDE OF A 1007 MB LOW IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN OF THE COAST OF WESTERN PANAMA. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT INTO THE FAR E PACIFIC BY MID WEEK. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THIS WILL ALSO INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH TO FORM ANOTHER UNDULATION W OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA BY THU. W OF 110W...1031 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 33N145W. SHIP REPORTS FROM 30N TO 35N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W ARE SHOWING NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KT. 20 KT NE WINDS ARE LIKELY N OF 25N W OF 130W AS WELL. THE SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALSO CONFIRM WAVEWATCH MODEL INITIALIZATION SHOWING N SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 FT APPROACHING THE AREA. FURTHER E...SHIP REPORTS ARE SHOWING THAT WINDS ARE DIMINISHING ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. FURTHER SOUTH...AN AREA OF WEAK AND DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. THIS CONVECTION WAS DUE IN PART TO UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE SE SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N127W...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO 09N130W. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 9 FT SOUTH 16N. $$ CHRISTENSEN