000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141553
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUN 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 08N88W TO 12N107W TO 
12N116W THEN ITCZ CONTINUES TO 03N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 08N E OF 88W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 180 NM N AND 240 NM S OF AXIS FROM 91W TO 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N112W IN SW U.S. TO WELL 
DEFINED CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 23N127W THEN CONTINUES TO 00N137W.  
AIR MASS VERY DRY ENTIRE REGION W OF TROUGH AXIS.  BROAD 
ANTICYCLONIC GYRE AT 21N107W EXTEND DRYNESS EASTWARD N OF 20N 
THROUGH N HALF OF MEXICO AND INTO GULF OF MEXICO W OF 90W.  MID 
TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONFINED TO REMAINDER OF BASIN BOTH 
SIDES OF MONSOONAL TROUGH/ITCZ AND W OF AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. 

SHALLOW DOWNSTREAM MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEPARATES RIDGE 
FROM SECOND GYRE OVER PANAMA.  MODERATE DIFFLUENCE AT BASE OF 
TROUGH ENHANCING SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION JUST S OF GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC.  SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH INTRODUCES 
MECHANICAL UPLIFT INGREDIENT INTO VERY MOIST WARM REGION WITH 
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND LOW SHEAR ALOFT.  AREA BEING 
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL ORGANIZATION AS MODEL GUIDANCE 
LEAN TOWARDS MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT 
ALBEIT BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD. 

ELSEWHERE AT LOW LEVELS...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1029 MB AT 34N144W HAS RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 
215N115W.  MODERATE NE BREEZE CONTINUE AROUND SE PERIPHERY OF 
RIDGE AS CENTER DRIFT NE OF AREA. 

LONG PERIOD SW CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL WITH SEAS 8-11 FT EXTENDS 
INTO E PAC WATERS SPREADING THROUGHOUT ENTIRE BASIN BY END OF 
FORECAST PERIOD. 

$$
WALLY BARNES