000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140930
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUN 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N84W TO 11N100W TO 11N120W.  
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 11N120W TO 
07N130W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 
05N TO 08N BETWEEN 88W AND 98W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 116W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW U.S. INTO THE FAR NE 
CORNER OF AREA SW TO A CUT-OFF LOW NEAR 24N126W...THEN CONTINUES 
S TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC NEAR 10N128W. MID TO 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OBSERVED OVER THE N WATERS BETWEEN THE 
CUT-OFF LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED AT 32N128W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 8N138W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING MAINLY N ALONG 140W. ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE 
IS CENTERED NEAR 18N106W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NNE ACROSS 
MEXICO INTO TEXAS. THIN DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL 
CYCLONE ADRIAN...IS STILL SPREADING NE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE 
AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. DIFFLUENCE S 
OF THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 116W. 
 
TO THE E OF THE AREA...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGIONAL WATERS. THE 
ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 80 NM OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 
02N TO 07N...AND OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF PANAMA. A CLUSTER 
OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DUE TO A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA 
AND THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED NEAR 18N106W.

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS...THE REMNANT LOW OF ADRIAN IS 
RAPIDLY WEAKENING AT 17N118W WITH A PRES OF 1011 MB...AND IS 
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. A RIDGE EXTENDS SE INTO 
THE AREA TO NEAR 21N115W. NE TRADES IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE 
CONTINUE SW OF THE RIDGE...FROM 9N TO 22N W OF 130W...WITH SEAS 
TO 9 FT. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS NE THE AREA TRADES WILL SHIFT N AS 
WELL...TO ROUGHLY N OF 10N W OF 130W TONIGHT. 

GAP WINDS OF 20 KT CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS FRESH 
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FUNNELS THROUGH THE 
GAP. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 
24-36 HOURS.

SOUTHERLY CROSS EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELL EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER 
MOST OF THE PACIFIC WATERS E OF 135W MIXING WITH NE SWELL 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THESE SWELLS SHOULD REACH 
30N TONIGHT. 

$$
GR