000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140306
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUN 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

PREVIOUS TROPICAL WAVE EARLIER NOTED ALONG 90W/91W IS NO LONGER
IDENTIFIABLE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN COSTA RICA TO 9N90W TO 
11N101W TO 11N112W TO 8N124W. LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE BEGINS AT 8N124W TO 6N130W TO
4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 124W-126W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW U.S. INTO THE FAR NE 
CORNER OF AREA SW TO A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 24N126W...THEN
CONTINUES S TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC NEAR 
12N123W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLE SUBSIDENCE 
AND DRY AIR N OF 12N BETWEEN 116W-135W...AND ALSO WITHIN 45 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. UPPER MOISTURE IS OBSERVED ALONG THE 
FAR NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE REGION AS IT SPREADS SWD ALONG THE 
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED AT 
32N128W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 8N138W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING N TO A CREST AT 27N142W. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS SE 
TO A SHARP CREST AT 08N126W...JUST TO THE W OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH BASE. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING E ACROSS 
THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 10N TO 27N TO THE W 
OF 133W.

AN INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 115W S OF 10N. UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH 
BETWEEN 115W AND 124W. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
SPREADING N TO NEAR 21N114W WHERE IT EVAPORATES. SOME OF THE 
UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED S ALONG 119W ACROSS THE 
EQUATOR IN THE UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW W OF THE CYCLONE AT 03N113W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 18N105W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING NNE TO THE CENTRAL U.S. THIN DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM 
FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ADRIAN...IS STILL SPREADING NE AROUND 
THE UPPER RIDGE AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA...ACROSS N CENTRAL OLD MEXICO AND SE NEW MEXICO AND 
EXTREME WESTERN TEXAS. DIFFLUENCE S OF RIDGE IS SUPPORTING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 89W-92W...AND
92W-95W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS FANNING OUT BETWEEN 95W AND 110W
BEFORE IT DRIES OUT IN DRY STABLE AIR.
  
TO THE E OF THE AREA...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WESTWARD 
TO N OF 8N E OF 88W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS 
ENHANCING SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION OVER COSTA RICA...PANAMA
AND THE NEARBY COASTS.

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS...THE REMNANT LOW OF ADRIAN IS 
RAPIDLY WEAKENING AT 17N118W WITH A PRES OF 1011 MB...AND IS 
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24-30 HOURS. A RIDGE EXTENDS SE 
INTO THE AREA FROM 32N134W SE TO NEAR 21N115W. NE TRADES IN THE 
15-20 KT RANGE CONTINUE SW OF THE RIDGE...FROM 9N TO 27N W OF 
129W...WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS NE THE AREA 
TRADES WILL SHIFT N AS WELL...TO ROUGHLY N OF 17N W OF 129W BY 
TUE EVENING...AND TO W OF A LINE FROM 19N140W TO 30N122W BY WED 
EVENING.

N WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN 45 NM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INDUCED 
BY A SLIGHTER STRONGER GRADIENT OVER SE MEXICO IN COMBINATION 
WITH OUTFLOW FROM RECENT STRONG CONVECTION CONVECTION OVER THE 
SE MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD DIMINISH IN ABOUT 24 
HOURS.

SOUTHERLY CROSS EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELLS EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER 
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THESE SWELLS SHOULD 
DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVER NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

$$
AGUIRRE