000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132204 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON JUN 13 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W/91W N OF 10N MOVING W AT 10 KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF GUATEMALA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL COSTA RICA TO 10N99W TO 12N115W TO 8N124W. LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE BEGINS AT 8N123W TO 5N132W TO 4N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN AN AREA FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 79W-82W ...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 92W-95W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED/STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 89W-92W...WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 103W-108W AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W-112W AND BETWEEN 117W-123W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW ARIZONA INTO THE FAR NE CORNER OF AREA SW TO A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 24N124W...AND CONTINUES S TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC NEAR 9N123W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR N OF 12N BETWEEN 118W-135W...AND ALSO WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. UPPER MOISTURE IS OBSERVED ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE REGION AS IT SPREADS SWD ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED AT 32N128W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 8N138W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N TO A CREST AT 27N142W. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS SE TO A SHARP CREST AT 08N126W...JUST TO THE W OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH BASE. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING E ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 10N TO 27N TO THE W OF 133W. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 114W S OF 10N. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 115W AND 124W. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING N TO NEAR 21N114W WHERE IT EVAPORATES. SOME OF THE UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED S ALONG 119W ACROSS THE EQUATOR IN THE UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW W OF THE CYCLONE AT 03N113W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 17N104W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NNE TO THE CENTRAL U.S. THIN DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ADRIAN...IS STILL SPREADING NE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ACROSS N CENTRAL OLD MEXICO AND SE NEW MEXICO AND EXTREME WESTERN TEXAS. DIFFLUENCE S OF RIDGE IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 89W-92W...AND 92W-95W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS FANNING OUT BETWEEN 95W AND 110W BEFORE IT DRIES OUT IN DRY STABLE AIR. FURTHER E...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE N OF 8N E OF 93W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONVECTION NEAR 12N91W AND CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS...THE REMNANT LOW OF ADRIAN IS SPINNING DOWN AT 17N118W OF 1012 MB...AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH ON TUE. A RIDGE EXTENDS SE INTO THE AREA FROM 32N134W SE TO NEAR 21N115W. NE TRADES IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE CONTINUE SW OF THE RIDGE...FROM 9N TO 27N W OF 129W...WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS NE THE AREA OF NE TRADES WILL SHIFT N AS WELL...TO ROUGHLY N OF 15N W OF 129W BY TUE AFTERNOON... AND TO W OF A LINE FROM 19N140W TO 30N122W BY WED AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY CROSS EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELL EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER MOST OF THE PACIFIC WATERS E OF 133W MIXING NE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. $$ AGUIRRE