000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131551 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON JUN 13 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 10N ALONG 85W MOVING W AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED E OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER WESTERN COSTA RICA WITH MULTIPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES DETECTED. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN COSTA RICA TO 11N96W... TURNS SW TO 06N107W...THEN TURNS NW TO 10N115W...TURNS SW TO 07N123W. LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE BEGINS AT 07N123W AND EXTENDS SW TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N77W TO 11N116W TO 08N123W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM OF 12N91W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF 13N104W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW ARIZONA INTO THE AREA THROUGH 30N118W TO A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE AT 23N121W...CONTINUES S TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC AT 09N123W. THE TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY A 120 NM WIDE BAND OF DRY UPPER AIR ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WITH ADDITIONAL DRY AIR INDICATED IN A SECONDARY SURGE WITH ITS LEADING EDGE ABOUT 360 NM NW OF THE AXIS. DRY UPPER AIR IS ALSO NOTED FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 117W AND 130W. UPPER MOISTURE IS OBSERVED FURTHER N AND IS SPREADING S TO ALONG 30N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W...AND IS ALSO SPREADING SE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 08N138W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N ALONG 142W TO WELL BEYOND 32N. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS SE TO A SHARP CREST AT 08N124W...JUST TO THE W OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH BASE. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING E ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 10N TO 27N TO THE W OF 133W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS OVER THE THE DEEP TROPICS AT 03N113W WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING N TO 10N114W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING N TO NEAR 16N114W WHERE IT EVAPORATES. SOME OF THE UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED S ALONG 119W ACROSS THE EQUATOR IN THE UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW W OF THE CYCLONE AT 03N113W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 17N104W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N TO A CREST OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIN DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ADRIAN...IS STILL SPREADING NE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ACROSS N CENTRAL OLD MEXICO AND SE NEW MEXICO AND EXTREME WESTERN TEXAS. DIFFLUENCE S OF RIDGE IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH 78W AND 110W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS FANNING OUT BETWEEN 95W AND 110W WITH SOME OF THE MOISTURE SPREADING NE OVER SW OLD MEXICO NEAR 18N. FURTHER E...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE UPPER LEVELS OF 07N E OF 93W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONVECTION NEAR 12N91W AND CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS...THE REMNANT LOW OF ADRIAN IS SPINNING DOWN AT 17.5N117W...AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH ON TUE. A RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM 32N140W TO NEAR 15N120W. NE TRADES IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE CONTINUE SW OF THE RIDGE...FROM 12N TO 22N W OF 130W...WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN A NE SWELL. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS NE THE AREA OF NE TRADES WILL SHIFT N AS WELL...TO ROUGHLY THE AREA FROM 20N TO 28N W OF 133W BY EARLY WED. SOUTHERLY CROSS EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELL EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER MOST OF THE PACIFIC WATERS E OF 133W MIXING NE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. $$ NELSON