000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130934
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUN 13 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N95W TO 06N107W THEN 
RESUMES AT 12N110W TO 06N126W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE 
ZONE EXTENDS FROM 06N126W TO 05N134W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 114W AND 116W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS EITHER SIDE 
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH COVERING THE AREA FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 
99W AND 108W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SW INTO 
THE AREA THROUGH 30N118W AND REACHES TO NEAR 21N124W. DRY AIR IS 
NOTED ALONG AND WITHIN AROUND 120 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING S INTO THE AREA N OF THIS 
TROUGH...AND AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE 
LOCATED N OF THE REGION NEAR 33N134W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 5N138W. THE 
ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ENVELOPES THE AREA S OF 20N W OF 
120W. ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR ACAPULCO MEXICO 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N OVER NE MEXICO AND TEXAS. UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO INDUCE 
CONVECTION EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AS PREVIOUSLY 
MENTIONED.  

TO THE E OF THE AREA...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE N CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS A RIDGE SW OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND 
GUATEMALA EXTENDING INTO THE PACIFIC WATERS TO NEAR 12N93W. 

ADRIAN...THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE EPAC TROPICAL 
SEASON...IS NOW A REMNANT LOW LOCATED AT 17N117W WITH AN 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1008 MB. A SWIRL OF LOW 
CLOUDS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE EDGE OF THE 0542 
UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN 150 NM NW QUADRANT 
OF LOW CENTER LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE LOW AND THE RIDGE OVER THE NW WATERS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO 
DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES WNW AT 10 KT.

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM 
THE NW TO NEAR 22N117W. THREE SHIP REPORTS INDICATE WINDS OF 20 
KT AND SEAS OF 10-11 FT IN N SWELL ACROSS THE N WATERS ROUGHLY N 
OF 27N AND W OF 118W. NE TRADE WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE 
ARE NOTED TO THE SW OF THE RIDGE...FROM 08N TO 24N W OF 128W 
WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE AERIAL EXTENT OF THE TRADES IS FORECAST 
TO INCREASE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AS HIGH PRES NW OF AREA SLIGHTLY 
INTENSIFIES. 

SOUTHERLY CROSS EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELL EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER 
MOST OF THE PACIFIC WATERS E OF 130W...MIXING WITH THE CONFUSED 
SEAS SURROUNDING THE REMNANT LOW PRES OF ADRIAN. WAVE WATCH 
GUIDANCE SHOWS A NEW SLY SWELL TRAIN WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD 
OF 17 TO 18 SECOND CROSSING THE EQUATOR THEN REACHING THE WATERS 
S OF 18N E OF 130W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND THE COAST LINE BY TUE 
EVENING.  

$$
GR