000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130306
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUN 13 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO 10N93W TO 
8N100W WHERE IT LOSES ITS IDENTITY. IT THEN BEGINS AGAIN TO THE 
NW NEAR 14N118W AND EXTENDS SW TO 7N127W WHERE AN INTERTROPICAL 
CONVERGENCE ZONE IS THEN IDENTIFIED TO 3N140W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 97W AND 99W.

AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS 
W OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 101W AND 108W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SW INTO
THE AREA THROUGH 32N118W AND REACHES TO NEAR 21N124W. THE TROUGH
IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
AXIS POINTS MENTIONED. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING S INTO 
THE AREA N OF THIS DRY SLOT AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 
LARGE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED N OF THE REGION NEAR 34N138W. SOME OF 
THIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND 
TO ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 6N136W THE 
ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE DOMINATING THE AREA S OF 22N W 
OF 120W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ 
CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...IS SPREADING E INTO THE 
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 08N W OF 130W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN SECTION OF THE AREA
NEAR 14N101W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N TO A CREST OVER W TEXAS 
NEAR 32N101W. WHAT LITTLE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS LEFT FROM FORMER 
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADRIAN...NOW A REMNANT LOW AT 17N116W OF 1007 
MB...IS SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE N OF 19N AND E OF 113W. 
ONLY ISOLATED WEAK TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 30 NM N OF THE LOW 
CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED WINDS OF ABOUT 
20-30 WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE AND 20 KT WITHIN 90 NM 
IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH 
IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WNW AT 10 KT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE THE DEEP TROPICS ALONG 116W
S OF 21N. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO ITS SE IS SUSTAINING 
SCATTERED TSTMS 30 NM OF 11N113W. THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS FANNING TO THE S IN BETWEEN AN 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 1N111W AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE 
NEAR 7N135W.

TO THE E OF THE AREA...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE N CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO A BROAD CREST OVER MOST OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER TROUGH DISSECTS THE GULF OF MEXICO 
FROM NE TO SW AND HAS DEEPENED TO BASE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE CENTRAL AMERICAN 
RIDGE...THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC UPPER TROUGH AND THE UPPER 
CYCLONE AT 1N111W...IS MAINTAINING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W IN 
ADDITION TO THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALREADY IN PLACE THERE.

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA
FROM 32N138W TO NEAR 22N117W. THE GRADIENT NE OF THE RIDGE HAS 
RELAXED AND IS ONLY SUPPORTING NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AT 15 
KT...BUT ACCOMPANIED BY NORTHERLY SWELLS MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD 
S SWELL...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT. NE TRADES ARE ALSO 
IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE TO THE SW OF THE RIDGE...FROM 08N TO 
24N W OF 127W AND FROM 13N TO 22N BETWEEN 123W AND 127W...WITH 
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A NE SWELL. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS NE THE AREA 
OF NE TRADES WILL N AS WELL.  

SOUTHERLY CROSS EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELL EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER 
MOST OF THE PACIFIC WATERS E OF 130W...MIXING WITH THE CONFUSED 
SEAS SURROUNDING THE REMNANT LOW PRES OF ADRIAN. SE CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SWELL IS NOTED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS TO THE W OF 
130W...MIXING WITH NE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRADES SW OF THE 
LOW LEVEL RIDGE.

$$
AGUIRRE