000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122204 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN JUN 12 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 8N FROM PANAMA TO NEAR 7N100W. THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ADRIAN DISTORTED THE MONSOON W OF 100W. ASCAT DATA FROM THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTED THAT THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE BECOMES IDENTIFIED FROM 6N126W TO 5N140W. HOWEVER...THE ONLY CONVECTION NOTED IS THAT OF THE SCATTERED STRONG TYPE WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS W OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 45 NM OF 10N92W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SW INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N118W AND REACHES TO NEAR 21N124W. THE TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS POINTS MENTIONED. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING S INTO THE AREA N OF THIS DRY SLOT AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED N OF THE REGION NEAR 34N138W. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND TO ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 08N132W THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE DOMINATING THE AREA S OF 22N W OF 120W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...IS SPREADING E INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 08N W OF 130W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN SECTION OF THE AREA NEAR 14N101W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N TO A CREST OVER W TEXAS NEAR 32N101W. WHAT LITTLE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS LEFT FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ADRIAN...NOW A REMNANT LOW AT 16.7N116W...IS SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE N OF 19N AND E OF 113W. ONLY ISOLATED WEAK TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 30 NM N OF THE LOW CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED WINDS OF ABOUT 20-30 WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE AND 20 KT WITHIN 90 NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE THE DEEP TROPICS ALONG 116W S OF 21N. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO ITS SE IS SUSTAINING SCATTERED TSTMS 30 NM OF 11N114.5W. THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS FANNING TO THE S IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 2N111W AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 7N135W. FURTHER E...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO A BROAD CREST OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER TROUGH DISSECTS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM NE TO SW AND HAS DEEPENED TO BASE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE CENTRAL AMERICAN RIDGE...THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC UPPER TROUGH AND THE UPPER CYCLONE AT 02N111W...IS MAINTAINING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W IN ADDITION TO THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALREADY IN PLACE THERE. ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM 32N138W TO NEAR 22N117W. THE GRADIENT NE OF THE RIDGE HAS RELAXED AND IS ONLY SUPPORTING NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AT 15 KT...BUT ACCOMPANIED BY NORTHERLY SWELLS MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD S SWELL...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT. NE TRADES ARE ALSO IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE TO THE SW OF THE RIDGE...FROM 08N TO 24N W OF 127W AND FROM 13N TO 22N BETWEEN 123W AND 127W...WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A NE SWELL. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS NE THE AREA OF NE TRADES WILL N AS WELL. SOUTHERLY CROSS EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELL EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER MOST OF THE PACIFIC WATERS E OF 130W...MIXING WITH THE CONFUSED SEAS SURROUNDING THE REMNANT LOW PRES OF ADRIAN. SE CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL IS NOTED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS TO THE W OF 130W...MIXING WITH NE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRADES SW OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE. $$ AGUIRRE