000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111559 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT JUN 11 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN IS CENTERED AT 15.8N 111.5W 991 MB AT 11/1500 UTC MOVING W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION PERSISTS WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER...SURROUNDED BY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 45 NM OVER THE SW SEMICIRCLE. ADRIAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENTRAIN INTO THE CIRCULATION. SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 08N83W TO 10N90W TO 16N100W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE FORMS SW OF THE WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR 10N115W AND EXTENDS SW TO 06N126W...THEN CONTINUES W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND IS DISSIPATING OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS N OF 04N TO THE E OF 81W. ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN PANAMA ARE BUILDING SW OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INCREASING WITHIN 90 NM OF 05N85W AND WITHIN 150 NM OF 09N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N123W TO 10N140W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AT 31N123W...THEN CONTINUES SW THROUGH 27N130W TO BEYOND 27N140W. THE UPPER CYCLONE IS RACING NE. THE TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR WHICH EXTENDS NE ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 15.5N105W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N TO A CREST OVER W TEXAS NEAR 32N103W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ADRIAN HAS BEEN SPREADING NE OVER CENTRAL OLD MEXICO NEAR 18N101W...BUT IS BEGINNING TO EVAPORATE. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 11N136W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING E TO 10N120W. DENSE UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING E INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 08N TO 19N TO THE W OF 130W. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE EQUATOR NEAR 120W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 15N116W. THIS SYSTEM EFFECTIVELY SEPARATES THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE SW PORTION FROM THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. ONLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ENHANCED ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 130W...WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE QUICKLY EVAPORATING AS THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY S OF 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 125W. FURTHER E...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...CURRENTLY OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO A SHARP CREST OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AT 09N90W. AN UPPER TROUGH DISSECTS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM NE TO SW AND HAS DEEPENED TO BASE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE...THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH AND THE ANTICYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...HAS ENHANCED SMALL AREAS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE SW COAST OF OLD MEXICO NEAR 16N100W...AND OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 09N94W. ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N140W TO 10N115W. THE GRADIENT NE OF THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT N OF 25N E OF 120W ACCOMPANIED BY NORTHERLY SWELLS WHICH WILL SOON MIX WITH LONG PERIOD S SWELL. NE TRADES ARE ALSO IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE TO THE SW OF THE RIDGE...FROM 08N TO 22N W OF 130W...WITH SEAS 7 TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL. SOUTHERLY CROSS EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELL EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER MOST OF THE PACIFIC WATERS E OF 130W...MIXING WITH THE CONFUSED SEAS SURROUNDING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SE CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL IS NOTED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS TO THE W OF 130W...MIXING WITH NE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRADES SW OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE. $$ NELSON