000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110304
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JUN 11 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE ADRIAN IS CENTERED AT 15.6N 109.3W 956 MB AT 11/0300 
UTC MOVING WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS ARE 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY 
SYMMETRIC WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 
NM OF CENTER. ADRIAN HAS MOVED OVER COOLER OCEAN WATERS...AND 
THE ATMOSPHERE IS ALSO LESS FAVORABLE ...THUS ADRIAN IS IN A 
WEAKENING TREND. SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCPEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N80W TO 08N100W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE EXTENDS FROM 09N115W TO 10N131W TO 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 02N E OF 
82W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
08N TO 11N BETWEEN 91W AND 94W... AND FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 
106W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 08N 
W OF 136W.  
 
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM OREGON AND NORTHERN 
CALIFORNIA TO THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 32N132W TO AN UPPER CYCLONE 
OVER HAWAII AT 20N159W. DRY UPPER AIR IS OVER THE DISCUSSION 
AREA TO N OF 27N...AND EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 20N105W 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N TO A CREST OVER TEXAS NEAR 32N98W. 
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 10N128W WITH RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 07N140W. UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING NE 
ALONG THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA FROM 4N TO 27N W OF 130W.

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC AT EQ115W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ENHANCED SW OF HURRICANE ADRIAN FROM 08N 
TO 12N BETWEEN 107W AND 118W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED SW 
AROUND THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE UPPER CYCLONE AT EQ115W...BUT 
SEEMS TO EVAPORATE IN DRY UPPER AIR THAT DOMINATES THE DEEP 
TROPICS S OF 08N BETWEEN 95W AND 125W.

FURTHER E...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...CURRENTLY NEAR JAMAICA...WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING W ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO A CREST OVER THE TROPICAL 
PACIFIC AT 09N95W. CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION HAVE FLARED 
OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA...WITH THE CELLS 
MOVING W AND DISSIPATING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THESE 
COUNTRIES. 
 
ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N139W TO 
12N120W. THE GRADIENT NE OF THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY 
WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT N OF 22N ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH SAT...WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING 
THEREAFTER. NE TRADES AREA ALSO IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE TO THE 
SW OF THE RIDGE...FROM 06N TO 22N W OF 127W...WITH SEAS 7 TO 9 
FT IN NE SWELL. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED NE TRADES SHOULD SHRINK TO 
THE WATERS ROUGHLY FROM 10N TO 22N W OF 135W BY LATE SUN.   

SOUTHERLY CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER THE 
PACIFIC WATERS W OF 95W MIXING WITH THE CONFUSED SEAS OVER THE 
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF HURRICANE ADRIAN. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 15 
TO 20 KT ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS S OF ABOUT 04N 
BETWEEN 125W AND 135W.   

$$
FORMOSA