000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUN 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE ADRIAN IS CENTERED AT 15.5N 108.6W 956 MB AT 10/2100 
UTC MOVING WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE EYE DIAMETER IS 25 
NM. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY SYMMETRIC WITH NUMEROUS STRONG OBSERVED 
WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER...SURROUNDED BY SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 106W AND 109W. 
ADRIAN IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER COOLER OCEAN WATERS...AND THE 
ATMOSPHERE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE...SO ADRIAN 
HAS STARTED A WEAKENING TREND. SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 12N90W TO 16N95W...AND 
FROM 11N107W TO 09N116W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE EXTENDS 
FROM 09N116W TO 11N128W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION N OF 02N E OF 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 91W AND 94W... AND 
FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 106W AND 114W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 08N W OF 136W. 

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS OREGON AND NORTHERN 
CALIFORNIA INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N132W INTO AN UPPER 
CYCLONE W OF THE AREA AT 20N160W. DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED 
OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE N OF 27N...AND EXTENDS ACROSS 
MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED 
AT 18N105W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N TO A CREST OVER TEXAS NEAR 
32N100W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 12N122W WITH 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 04N140W. UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING 
NE ALONG THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA FROM 14N TO 23N W OF 130W.

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC AT 03S115W. 
CONVECTION IS ENHANCED SW OF HURRICANE ADRIAN FROM 08N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 106W AND 115W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED SW AROUND 
THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE UPPER CYCLONE AT 03S115W...BUT SEEMS TO 
EVAPORATE IN DRY UPPER AIR THAT DOMINATES THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 
08N BETWEEN 95W AND 125W.

FURTHER E...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...CURRENTLY NEAR JAMAICA...WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING W ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO A CREST OVER THE TROPICAL 
PACIFIC AT 09N96W. CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION HAVE FLARED 
OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA...WITH THE CELLS 
MOVING W AND DISSIPATING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THESE 
COUNTRIES. 
 
ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N139W TO 
12N120W. THE GRADIENT NE OF THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY 
WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT N OF 22N ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH SAT...WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING 
THEREAFTER. NE TRADES AREA ALSO IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE TO THE 
SW OF THE RIDGE...FROM 06N TO 22N W OF 127W...WITH SEAS 7 TO 9 
FT IN NE SWELL. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED NE TRADES SHOULD SHRINK TO 
THE WATERS ROUGHLY FROM 10N TO 22N W OF 135W BY LATE SUN.   

SOUTHERLY CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER THE 
PACIFIC WATERS W OF 95W MIXING WITH THE CONFUSED SEAS OVER THE 
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF HURRICANE ADRIAN. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 15 
TO 20 KT ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS S OF ABOUT 04N 
BETWEEN 125W AND 135W.   

$$
FORMOSA