000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101549 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI JUN 10 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE ADRIAN IS CENTERED AT 15.3N 107.6W 948 MB AT 10/1500 UTC MOVING W NW OR 285 DEGREES AT 08 KT. THE EYE DIAMETER IS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 15 AND 25 NM. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY SYMMETRIC WITH NUMEROUS STRONG OBSERVED WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER...SURROUNDED BY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 103W AND 109W. ADRIAN IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER COOLER OCEAN WATERS...AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE...SO ADRIAN HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY. SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 08N78W TO 08N83W TO 14N90W...THEN IS ANALYZED SW OF THE HURRICANE FROM 15N110W TO 12N121W...WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE BEGINS AND CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 03N TO 08N TO THE E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF 09N91W...AND ALSO WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N103W TO 06N140W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N132W INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE JUST W OF THE AREA AT 27N143W. DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE N OF 27N...AND EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 19N105W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N TO A CREST OVER TEXAS NEAR 32N100W. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS SW TO A CREST AT 11N138W. UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING NE ALONG THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA FROM 14N TO 23N W OF 130W. A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE IS NOTED AT 23N130W AND IS RACING NE WITH TIME. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC AT 02N118W. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED SW OF HURRICANE ADRIAN FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 105W AND 116W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED SW AROUND THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE UPPER CYCLONE AT 02N118W...BUT SEEMS TO EVAPORATE IN DRY UPPER AIR THAT DOMINATES THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 08N BETWEEN 95W AND 125W. FURTHER E...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...CURRENTLY NEAR JAMAICA...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO A CREST OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AT 09N96W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION HAVE FLARED OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA...WITH THE CELLS MOVING W AND DISSIPATING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THESE COUNTRIES. ANOTHER CLUSTER IS ENHANCED NEAR THE RIDGE CREST AT 09.5N92W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE EVAPORATES NEAR THE DISSIPATING CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N139W TO 12N120W. THE GRADIENT NE OF THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT N OF 22N ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH SAT...WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING THEREAFTER. NE TRADES AREA ALSO IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE TO THE SW OF THE RIDGE...FROM 06N TO 22N W OF 127W...WITH SEAS 7 TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED NE TRADES SHOULD SHRINK TO THE WATERS ROUGHLY FROM 10N TO 22N W OF 135W BY LATE SUN. SOUTHERLY CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS W OF 95W MIXING WITH THE CONFUSED SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF HURRICANE ADRIAN. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS S OF ABOUT 04N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. $$ NELSON