000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100932 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI JUN 10 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE ADRIAN CENTERED NEAR 15.0N 106.5W AT 10/0900 UTC MOVING W-NW AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. THIS MAKES ADRIAN A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY ADRIAN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 12 TO 16N BETWEEN 104W AND 108W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N84W TO 13N89W THEN RESUMES AT 15N110W TO 12N121W. AT THIS POINT...THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE CONTINUES TO 07N130W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 07N E OF 83W...AND NEAR 09N92W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS ADVECTING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY N OF 15N AND W OF 130W. A LOW-TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF HURRICANE ADRIAN THAT EXTENDS FROM MAINLAND MEXICO WESTWARD ACROSS BAJA AND INTO THE EXTREME EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT...ADRIAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W-NW AND AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS ADRIAN AS A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN 120 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. E OF 90W...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 110W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER MEXICO IS PRODUCING NW TO N WINDS OF 20 KT W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ROUGHLY N OF 22N E OF 120W. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING THEREAFTER. NE TRADE WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE PARTICULARLY FROM 05N TO 22N W OF 130W...AND FROM 11N TO 21N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W...WITH SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN NE WIND WAVES. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED NE TRADES SHOULD SHRINK TO THE WATERS ROUGHLY FROM 10N TO 20W W OF 130W BY LATE SAT AS HIGH PRES TO THE N WEAKENS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS MAINLY E OF 120W. THIS SWELL IS MIXING WITH THE CONFUSED SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ADRIAN. A NEW BATCH OF NLY SWELL WILL REACH THE N WATERS TODAY...RAISING SEAS TO 9 FT BY SAT. $$ GR