000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091556 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU JUN 09 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE ADRIAN AT 14.2N 104.1W 960 MB AT 09/1500 UTC MOVE W NW OR 285 DEGREES AT 08 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 45 NM OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 NM OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 101W AND 107W. LARGE WAVES AND HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. ADRIAN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE FRI AS THE HURRICANE MOVES OVER COOLER OCEAN WATERS. SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N110W TO 12N117W THEN CONTINUES W AS AN INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 03N TO 08N TO THE E OF 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF 09N91W...AND ALSO WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N103W TO 06N140W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 32N132W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND 26N140W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 17N107W WITH ITS ENVELOPE ON ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 08N BETWEEN 100W AND 118W...INCLUDING THE UPPER LEVELS OVER HURRICANE ADRIAN. ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 07N133W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO NEAR 15N122W. UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING E INTO THE AREA ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE... ROUGHLY WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14N140W TO 17N130W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF ITCZ CONVECTION IS ENHANCED UNDER THIS TROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN 120W AND 143W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTION BETWEEN 130W AND 138W IS NOW SPREADING NE TO NEAR 12N132W. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS NOTED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 03N115W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NW TO NEAR 11N120W...AND EFFECTIVELY SEPARATES THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER ADRIAN FROM THE THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW JUST DESCRIBED OVER THE SW PORTION. FURTHER E...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO A CREST CURRENTLY OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AT 12N93W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION HAVE FLARED OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA...WITH THE CELLS MOVING W AND DISSIPATING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THESE COUNTRIES. ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N139W TO 17N113W. THE GRADIENT NE OF THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH FRI NIGHT...WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING THEREAFTER. NE TRADES AREA ALSO IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE TO THE SW OF THE RIDGE...FROM 08N TO 21N W OF 130W...WITH SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN MERGING NE WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD S SWELL. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED NE TRADES SHOULD SHRINK TO THE WATERS ROUGHLY FROM 06N TO 18W W OF 130W BY LATE SAT. SOUTHERLY CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 95W AND 108W MIXING WITH THE CONFUSED SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF HURRICANE ADRIAN. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT AREA ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS S OF ABOUT 08N BETWEEN 108W AND 130W. $$ NELSON