000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091005
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JUN 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE ADRIAN AT 14.2N 103.5W 979 MB AT 09/0900 UTC MOVE W-NW OR 
295 DEGREES AT 10 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 GUSTS TO 100 KT.  
SEE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/WTPZ21 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  STRONG DEEP CONVECTION HAS COMPLETELY 
SURROUNDED ITS CENTER INTENSIFYING SYSTEM TO 80 KT AND EXPECTED TO 
REACH A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TODAY AND ATTAIN CATEGORY THREE 
...MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...TONIGHT.  LARGE WAVES AND HAZARDOUS SURF 
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG COAST OF MEXICO AS ADRIAN INTENSIFIES AND 
MOVES PARALLEL TO COASTLINE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N110W TO 07N126W...CONTINUES AS ITCZ 
TO 05N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS W OF 109W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BARELY INCHING ITS WAY INTO NW CORNER OF BASIN 
BRINGING DRY AIR MASS TO REGION NE OF SHARP RIDGE CREST ALONG 105W. 
WELL DEFINED ANTICYCLONE AT 14N03W HELPS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW OF 
HURCN ADRIAN.  RIDGE ALSO EXTEND E-W ALONG 8-10N W OF 115W PROVIDE 
LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT TO ITCZ AND MONSOONAL TROUGH ALLOWING DISCREET 
CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ. 

...AT THE SURFACE...
SURFACE HIGH PRES 1031 MB NW OF BASIN CONTINUE FORCING FRESH NW 
WINDS ALONG W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD AS RIDGE DRIFT NE.  FRESH TRADES 
W OF 125W ALSO DIMINISH WITH RIDGE DRIFT.  

FURTHER SOUTH...MODEL GUIDANCE BRING SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW CROSS- 
EQUATORIAL SWELL S OF 10N THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. 

$$
WALLY BARNES