000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090407
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUN 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE ADRIAN CENTERED NEAR 13.8N 102.4W 987 MB AT 09/0300 UTC 
MOVING NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 GUSTS 
TO 85 KT.  SEE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  WEAK EYE IS STARTING TO 
BECOME EVIDENT...AND STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TO THE 
WEST OF THE FORMING EYE. STEEP WAVES AND HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS 
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BY THU AS ADRIAN INTENSIFIES 
AND MOVES PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N92W TO 14N95W...CONTINUES FROM 
10N106W TO 10N115W TO 09N122W THEN CONTINUES AS ITCZ TO 05N130W TO 
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 
130W AND 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 105W IS PROVIDING GOOD EXHAUST TO THE 
DEVELOPING HURRICANE ADRIAN. UPPER RIDGING ALSO EXTENDS ALONG 
ROUGHLY 10N...AIDING MODEST CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 130W 
AND 135W. 

FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO 30N130W IS SHIFTING E AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER 
RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 34N130W. AN ASSOCIATED 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES 
IS CENTERED NEAR 39N138W. ASCAT AND WINDSAT DATA OVER THE PAST 
SEVERAL HOURS SHOW FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA TOWARD 
THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA...BETWEEN APPROACHING DEEP LAYER RIDGE 
AND WEAK LOW PRES OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO.

FRESH TRADES ARE ALSO APPARENT S OF THE RIDGE...MAINLY S OF 20N AND 
W OF 125W. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. 
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT BY LATE FRI AS NE SWELL GROWS IN THE LONG NE 
FETCH OF THE TRADE WIND FLOW.

FURTHER SOUTH...BOTH THE WAVEWATCH III AND ECWAVE MODELS INITIALIZED 
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL S OF 05N. A PAIR OF 
JASON ALTIMETER PASSES FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY ALONG WITH VARIOUS 
SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT THE MODELS ARE PROBABLY OVERDOING 
THE SEAS SLIGHTLY IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME REASON TO 
BELIEVE THAT SW SWELL TO 8 FT MAY PUSH N OF THE EQUATOR THROUGH THU. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN