000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082143
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUN 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN CENTERED NEAR 13.5N 101.6W 994 MB AT 
08/2100 UTC MOVING NNW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.  SEE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SPIRAL 
BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER...WITH 
MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDING UP TO 210 NM FROM THE CENTER. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
AND ADRIAN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT. STEEP
WAVES AND HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
OF MEXICO BY THU AS ADRIAN INTENSIFIES AND MOVES PARALLEL TO THE 
COASTLINE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N91W TO 14N97W...CONTINUES FROM 
10N103W TO 12N105W TO 11N115W THEN CONTINUES AS ITCZ TO 05N125W TO 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS W OF 
130W. 

...DISCUSSION...
E TO W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 10N MAINTAINS STEADY ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW ACROSS MOST OF BASIN. RIDGE CREST ALONG 108W IS CREATING A 
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF T.S.
ADRIAN WITH RELATIVELY LOW WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE UPPER LEVEL 
DIVERGENT FLOW. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 30 C...ALSO 
WILL HELP PROVIDE ENERGY TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 25N140W ACROSS THE
NW PORTION OF THE BASIN.

1031 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED WELL NW OF AREA NEAR 40N140W...WITH A  
A RIDGE EXTENDING TO NEAR 20N110W. FRESH NW TO N WINDS ARE NOTED OFF 
THE COAST OF BAJA...BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER 
N CENTRAL MEXICO. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 18Z ALSO CONFIRMED A LARGE 
SWATH OF 20 KT TRADES S OF THE RIDGE...MAINLY S OF 20N AND W OF 
125W. SEAS ARE UP TO 8 FT IN THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES...AND WILL 
BUILD TO 10 FT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO NE SWELL.

$$
MUNDELL/CHRISTENSEN