000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081600
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUN 8 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN CENTERED NEAR 12.9N 100.8W 994 MB AT 
08/1500 UTC MOVING NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.  SEE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SPIRAL 
BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER...WITH 
MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDING UP TO 210 NM FROM THE CENTER. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
AND ADRIAN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT. STEEP
WAVES AND HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
OF MEXICO BY THU AS ADRIAN INTENSIFIES AND MOVES PARALLEL TO THE 
COASTLINE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N92W TO 14N98W...CONTINUES FROM 
10N103W TO 12N113W TO 07N124W THEN CONTINUES AS ITCZ TO 04N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS W OF 118W. 

...DISCUSSION...
E TO W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 10N MAINTAINS STEADY ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW ACROSS MOST OF BASIN. RIDGE CREST ALONG 108W IS CREATING A 
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF T.S.
ADRIAN WITH RELATIVELY LOW WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE UPPER LEVEL 
DIVERGENT FLOW. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 30 C...ALSO 
WILL HELP PROVIDE ENERGY TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 25N140W ACROSS THE
NW PORTION OF THE BASIN.

1031 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED WELL NW OF AREA HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING 
TO NEAR 23N117W AND A WEAK TROUGH IN WESTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING 
FRESH NW WINDS ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST E OF 116W...AND N 
SWELLS HAVE SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO AROUND 20N BETWEEN 112W AND 118W.
SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL TRAIN HAS PEAKED AND IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE A NEW SET OF 
S-SW SWELLS BEGIN TO AFFECT THE EQUATORIAL AREA W OF 110W BY THU.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED...WITH AN ITCZ WEST
OF AROUND 120W AND THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 120W LIFTING NORTHWARD
ALONG WITH ADRIAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

$$
MUNDELL