000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080355
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUN 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN CENTERED NEAR 11.8N 100.6W AT 08/0300 UTC 
MOVING NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE...1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 40 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BANDING OF DEEP 
CONVECTION INCREASINGLY WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AND CONFINED 
TO WITHIN 120 NM IN THE W AND 90 NM IN THE E SEMICIRCLES.  
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT AND ADRIAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE WED.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM+ 15N92W TO 13N97W...CONTINUES FROM 
11N105W TO 06N125W THEN CONTINUES AS ITCZ TO 04N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 90-120 NM OF AXIS W OF 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...
AS NOTED ABOVE...TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN...THE FIRST NAMED STORM 
OF THE 2011 EAST PACIFIC SEASON...CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER 
ORGANIZED AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY
AN ELONGATED ANTICYCLONE ORIENTED FROM NW TO SE TO THE N OF THE 
CYCLONE. ANTICYCLONIC E AND SE UPPER LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL OVER 
THE SYSTEM. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREA NEAR THE CYCLONE THE 
ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP LAYERED DRY AIR. 

FURTHER W A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 30N132W TO 23N140W WITH A CHANNEL OF 
MODERATE TO STRONG SW FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE ANTICYCLONE
EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICS W OF 130W NE TO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
THE SW CONUS. AT THE LOW LEVELS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 
32N140W TO AROUND 14N115W. CONVERGENT EASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE ITCZ ARE FOUND W OF 127W WHILE S-SW MONSOON FLOW 
PREVAILS OVER SE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. NW WINDS TO 20 
KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE W OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THU. NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL 
PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 10N W OF 110W AND MIX WITH 
SOUTHERLY SWELLS THROUGH WED.

$$
COBB