000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072154
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUN 07 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E CENTERED NEAR 11.7N 100.2W AT 07/2100 
UTC MOVING WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 3 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE...1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS 
TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DEEP CONVECTION IS 
INCREASING WITHIN 240 NM IN THE W AND 120 NM IN THE E 
SEMICIRCLES AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A 
TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.  

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N92W TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E TO 
12N108W TO 06N127W THEN CONTINUES AS ITCZ TO 05N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE FROM 08N TO 11N E OF 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 240
NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 117W AND 120W...AND WITHIN 90-120 NM OF 
AXIS W OF 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF SHOWING SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT BUT FAILING 
TO INTENSIFY MUCH BEYOND 20-25 KT...THE LOW PRES NEAR 11.5N100W 
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E...THE FIRST 
TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE 2011 EAST PACIFIC SEASON. CONVECTIVE 
ORGANIZATION IS SLOWLY INCREASING AROUND THE CYCLONE CENTER AND 
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES TD 01E IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER 
THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOUD MINIMUM 
REGION NEAR THE CENTER. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO 
FLUCTUATE THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO CONCENTRATE 
NEARER THE CENTER BY EARLY WED.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA THROUGH 30N132W TO 23N140W. UPPER RIDGE ALONG 17N E OF 115W 
IS ENHANCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND 
THUS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION. AT THE LOW 
LEVELS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N140W TO AROUND 14N115W. 
CONVERGENT EASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ ARE FOUND W 
OF 127W WHILE S-SW MONSOON FLOW PREVAILS OVER SE PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. NW WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH 
LATE WED. NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE WATERS N 
OF 10N W OF 110W AND MIX WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS THROUGH WED.

$$
COBB