000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071605
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUN 7 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 100.0W 1006 MB AT 
1500 UTC JUN 7 MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. DEEP CONVECTION
IS INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. SEE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE 
BULLETINS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N92W TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E TO 
09N105W TO 08N125W THEN CONTINUES AS ITCZ TO 05N131W TO 05N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 
115W AND 119W...AND WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF SHOWING SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT BUT FAILING 
TO INTENSIFY MUCH BEYOND 20-25 KT...THE LOW PRES NEAR 11.5N100W 
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROP DEPRESSION 01E. A SCATTEROMETER PASS 
AT 0424 UTC DIRECTLY OVER THE LOW SHOWED A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION WITH WINDS TO 25 KT. CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS 
SLOWLY INCREASING AROUND THE CYCLONE CENTER...AND GLOBAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE INDICATES TD 01E IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 2-3 
DAYS...WITH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
TO 36 HOURS. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOUD MINIMUM REGION NEAR THE 
CENTER. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS BUT WE SHOULD SEE ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION CONCENTRATE NEARER
THE CENTER BY EARLY WED.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA. UPPER RIDGE ALONG 17N E OF 115W IS ENHANCING ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AT LOW LEVELS A SURFACE RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM 32N140W TO AROUND 14N115W. CONVERGENT EASTERLY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ ARE FOUND W OF 125W WHILE S-SW MONSOON 
FLOW PREVAILS OVER SE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. NW WINDS TO
20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE W OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH LATE WED. NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL 
PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 10N W OF 110W AND MIX WITH 
SOUTHERLY SWELLS THROUGH WED.

$$
MUNDELL