000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070953
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUN 07 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
.SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER 1007 MB AT 11.5N99W DRIFTING NE.  WINDS 
20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 180 NM N AND 330 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CURRENTLY IN WEAKENING 
TREND EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS SYSTEM MOVE NW TO 13N102W WED AND 
13N103W WED.  CONDITIONS FAVOR INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN 48 HRS AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE 
30C AND SHEAR ALOFT HAS NOT INCREASED.  

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH STRETCH FROM GUATEMALA TO FEATURE LOW PRES AT 
11.5N100W TO WEAK LOW PRES 1011 MB AT 09N117W THEN CONTINUE AS 
ITCZ TO 05N134W TO 05N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ALONG MONSOON TROUGH OSCILLATES 150 NM AROUND FEATURE 
LOW PRES EXCEPT 240 NM SW QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM W QUADRANT OF WEAK LOW PRES AT 09N117W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 32N128W THROUGH AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 
18N131W THEN CONTINUES S TO A BASE AT 08N131W. AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 16N112W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE 
TO BEYOND 31N108W MERGING INTO A LONGWAVE RIDGE DOMINATING THE 
CENTRAL CONUS. UPPER MOISTURE IS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY SE INTO 
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 240 NM OF 30N135W. SOME OF DEBRIS 
MOISTURE FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH CONVECTION BETWEEN 114W AND 
126W IS ADVECTED NE UNDER THE RIDGE BUT EVAPORATES BEFORE 
REACHING ALONG 21N AS THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY ELSEWHERE N 
OF 20N W OF 96W.

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 11N106W...AND NOW APPEARS TO 
BE FILLING. THE TROPICAL LOW AT 11.5N99W IS ALMOST STATIONARY IN 
AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS UPPER CYCLONE AND THE 
WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 94W. CONVECTION IS 
CURRENTLY FLARING AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...WITH DEBRIS MOISTURE 
FANNING OUT OVER THE TROPICS S OF 16N BETWEEN 94W AND 108W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A CREST ALONG 94W FROM 10N TO 16N.
SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY 
DESCRIBED TO THE E OF 94W IS ADVECTED S TO ALONG 04N BETWEEN 80W 
AND 94W...AND SOME MOISTURE ALSO SPREADS NE AROUND THE RIDGE 
AXIS...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN...THE SE 
GULF OF MEXICO AND IS NOW MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA S OF 28N. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS...A WEST TO EAST RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 
32N140W TO 13N112W. NW WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT...WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 
FT...AREA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH LATE WED. NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL 
PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 10N W OF 110W AND MIX WITH 
SOUTHERLY SWELLS THROUGH WED. 

GAP WINDS...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT WERE INDICATED IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS 
THAN 20 KT JUST AFTER SUNRISE TUE AS THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SW 
MOVES OUT TO THE NW.
 
$$
WALLY BARNES