000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062201
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUN 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
.A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CENTERED NEAR 11N99W AND 
DRIFTING SLOWLY NE WITH AN ESTIMATED CENTER PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. 
PER A MID MORNING ASCAT PASS SURFACE WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT HAVE 
EXPANDED OUTWARD TO ABOUT 300 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE 
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FAIRLY SYMMETRIC WITHIN ABOUT 
270 NM OF CENTER AND IS ORGANIZING IN A BAND OR THE W SEMICIRCLE.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW REACHING NEAR 12N100W TUE 
AFTERNOON...AND NEAR 13N1010W WED AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE 
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.  

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS GUATEMALA THROUGH 12N86W TO 
THE SURFACE LOW AT 11N99W...WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING W ALONG 
10N TO 118W...THEN TURNS SW TO 06N127W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS 
INDICATE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES W TO BEYOND 05.5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS TO 09N ALL TO THE E OF 93W...AND SURROUNDS 
THE TROPICAL LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON FLOW...ROUGHLY FROM 07N 
TO 15N BETWEEN 96W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N110W 
TO 12N120W AND ANOTHER LINE FROM 09N119W TO 04N132W.   

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 32N128W THROUGH UPPER CYCLONE AT 
21N129W AND 15N129W THEN CONTINUING S TO A BASE AT 102N131W. AN 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 11N115W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING NE TO BEYOND 32N105W MERGING INTO A LONGWAVE RIDGE 
DOMINATING THE CENTRAL CONUS. UPPER MOISTURE IS ROTATING 
CYCLONICALLY SE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 300 NM OF 
31N136W. SOME OF DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH 
CONVECTION BETWEEN 112W AND 127W IS ADVECTED NE UNDER THE RIDGE 
BUT EVAPORATES BEFORE REACHING ALONG 22N AS THE UPPER LEVELS ARE
VERY DRY ELSEWHERE N OF 20N W OF 96W.

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 11N105.5W. THE TROPICAL LOW AT 
11N 99W IS ALMOST STATIONARY IN AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE 
BETWEEN THIS UPPER CYCLONE AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER 
RIDGE ALONG 94W. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FLARING AS PREVIOUSLY 
DESCRIBED...WITH DEBRIS MOISTURE FANNING OUT OVER THE TROPICS S 
OF 16N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A CREST ALONG 94W FROM 11N TO 17N.
SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY 
DESCRIBED TO THE E OF 95W IS ADVECTED S TO ALONG 02N BETWEEN 80W 
AND 94W...AND SOME MOISTURE ALSO SPREADS NE AROUND THE RIDGE 
AXIS...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN...THE SE 
GULF OF MEXICO AND IS NOW MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA S OF 28N. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS...A WEST TO EAST RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 
32N140W TO 16N110W. NW WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT...WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 
FT...AREA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH LATE WED. NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL 
PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 10N W OF 110W AND MIX WITH 
SOUTHERLY SWELLS THROUGH WED. 

GAP WINDS...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT WERE INDICATED IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS 
THAN 20 KT JUST AFTER SUNRISE TUE AS THE SURFACE LOW TO THE 
MOVES OUT TO THE NW.
 
$$
NELSON