000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061611 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN JUN 05 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... .SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 10.9N 98.3W WITH CENTER PRES OF 1007 MB. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM NE SEMICIRCLE... WHILE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM SW SEMICIRCLE. A SPIRAL BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION APPEARS 180 NM TO 240 NM ACROSS THE NW QUADRANT AND IS LIKELY BEING FORCED BY PLUME OF NELY WINDS FLOWING DOWNSTREAM OUT OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE ABOUT 400 NM TO THE W OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO AID IN MAINTAINING DIVERGENCE AND LIGHT SHEAR ALOFT ACROSS THE SYSTEM. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WNW TO NW. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED TO MONSOONAL GYRE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS WSW TO 14.5N90W TO 14N96W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N98.5W TO 09N102W TO 11N118W TO 05N126W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ AND EXTENDS TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTLINE BETWEEN 82W AND 92W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 137W. ...DISCUSSION... DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE NEAR 36N120W BEGUN TO LIFT TOWARD THE NE THIS MORNING...WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SSE THEN SSW TO 28N122W. TO THE S AND SW PERSISTS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 28N131W TO THE ITCZ ALONG 08N128W THEN EXTENDS SE AS A BROADER FEATURE CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 123W. DOWNSTREAM EQUATORIAL UPPER RIDGING OCCURRING BETWEEN UPPER CYCLONE W OF TROPICAL LOW AND 125W AND EXTENDS NNE THEN NE INTO NRN MEXICO AND EXTREME W TEXAS. BROAD AND SHARPENING TUTT LOW ACROSS W GULF OF MEXICO COMBINING WITH WIDESPREAD CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND NELY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS S AMERICA TO MAINTAIN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS TROPICAL EPAC E OF 100W AND INTO CARIBBEAN. ...ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE... RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE PACIFIC SE TO DISCUSSION AREA WHERE IT BRIDGES ACROSS DYING FRONTAL TROUGH...FROM 30N119W TO 23N132W...WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING SE TO NEAR 19N114W. FRESH NW WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT WILL CONTINUE ALONG W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH LATE TUE WHILE NORTHERLY SWELLS SPREAD SE ACROSS WATERS N OF 16N W OF 120W AND EVENTUALLY MIX WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS BY TUE. E AND SE OF THIS RIDGE...THE EPAC MONSOONAL CIRCULATION PREVAILS...WITH TWO BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH. THE FIRST IS THE TROPICAL LOW NEAR 10.9N 98.3W...WHILE THE SECOND IS THE MONSOONAL GYRE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. SW TO WLY FLOW PREVAILS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 110W AT 10-15 KT WITH SMALL POCKETS OF 15-20 KT LIKELY E OF 95W. N TO NELY FLOW AT 20-25 KT CONTINUES TO BE PULLED OUT OF GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION AND INTO PERIPHERAL CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL LOW...AIDING IN OUTER RAINBANDS. $$ STRIPLING