000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061013
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUN 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
.SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN LESS 
THAN 48 HOURS...AT 10.6N 98.2W WITH CENTER PRES OF 1007 MB. 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  LOW PRES 
EXPECTED TO DRIFT NW REACHING 12N99W MON NIGHT AND 13N101W TUE 
NIGHT.  

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N91W TO 13N95W TO 08N106W TO 
11N111W TO 06N128W THEN ITCZ CONTINUES TO 05N140W.  ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM S OF AXIS E OF 105W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE AT 37N122W HAS TROUGH EXTEND TO 32N124W TO 
07N129W.  VERY DRY AIR MASS N OF 10N W OF 120W DUE TO MODERATE 
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ALONG TROUGH AXIS.  DOWNSTREAM 
ANTICYCLONIC GYRE AT 13N112W HAS RIDGE EXTEND NE INTO NW MEXICO 
AND BEYOND TO 32N105W.  SECOND TROUGH DIGS SW FROM NEAR GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TO WELL DEFINED CYCLONE AT 11N105W.  TROUGH COMBINES 
WITH NEXT RIDGE OVER NW COLOMBIA TO CREATE AREA OF DIVERGENT 
FLOW ALOFT IN VICINITY OF AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW PRES 
ENHANCING ITS CONVECTION.  ADDITIONALLY...LOW WIND SHEAR ALOFT 
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAKE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
LOW CENTER TO INTENSIFY.  MODEL GUIDANCE LIKE CONDITIONS AND 
FORECAST A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN NEXT 48-72 HRS.  
ACTUAL FORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AS DRIFT BY UPPER TROUGH 
CLOSER TO SURFACE LOW PRES COULD INCREASE WIND SHEAR AND TURN 
INTO A MORE ADVERSE ENVIRONMENT.  NEXT 24 HRS BECOME CRUCIAL 
FOR DEVELOPMENT. 

...ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW CORNER TO 15N115W WITH FRESH NW WINDS AND 
SEAS TO 8 FT ALONG W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH 
LATE TUE.  NORTHERLY SWELLS SPREAD SE ACROSS WATERS N OF 16N W 
OF 120W AND EVENTUALLY MIX WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS BY 
TUE. 

GAP WINDS...FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TODAY.
 
$$
WALLY BARNES