000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060353
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUN 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
.A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS MEANDERING NEAR 10.6N 98.2W 
WITH AN ESTIMATED CENTER PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF A LINE FROM 13N100W TO 06N102W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT 
TO BEGIN TO MOVE NW REACHING NEAR 12N 99.5W MON EVENING...
AND NEAR 13.5N 101.5W TUE EVENING WITH POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION.  

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N86W THROUGH THE SURFACE LOW 
AT 10.6N 98.2W...WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING SW TO 07N104W...THEN 
TURNS W TO 06N127W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THE ITCZ 
BEGINS AND CONTINUES W TO BEYOND 04.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 87W 
AND 97W...AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N115W TO 
08N121W...AND ALSO WITHIN 15 NM OF 06N130W. LOCALLY OVERCAST LOW 
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS...ARE NOTED 
ELSEWHERE FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 82W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 36N125W WITH AN 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 30N126W TO A BASE AT 12N130W. AN 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N112W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING NE TO BEYOND 32N108W...EVENTUALLY MERGING INTO A 
LONGWAVE RIDGE DOMINATING THE CENTRAL CONUS. A THIN BAND OF 
UPPER MOISTURE IS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY SE INTO THE DISCUSSION 
AREA FROM 32N140W TO 26N132W. SOME OF DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE 
MONSOON TROUGH CONVECTION BETWEEN 113W AND 131W IS ADVECTED NE 
UNDER THE RIDGE BUT EVAPORATES NEAR 19N114W.

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N105W. THE TROPICAL LOW AT 
10.6N 98.2 IS STATIONARY IN AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN 
THIS UPPER CYCLONE AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 
93W. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FLARING AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED... 
WITH DEBRIS MOISTURE FANNING OUT OVER THE TROPICS FROM 03N TO 
14N BETWEEN 94W AND 106W. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR 
DRY W OF 95W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A CREST ALONG 93W FROM 10N TO 17N.
SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY 
DESCRIBED TO THE E OF 95W IS ADVECTED S ACROSS THE EQUATOR 
BETWEEN 80W AND 90W...AND SOME MOISTURE ALSO SPREADS NE AROUND 
THE RIDGE AXIS...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND ACROSS THE W 
CARIBBEAN. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT HAS BECOME DIFFUSE 
AND DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE ANALYSIS. A WEST TO EAST RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM 30N140W TO 15N113W. NW WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT...WITH 
SEAS 6 TO 8 FT...AREA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE W COAST OF 
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH LATE TUE. NORTHERLY SWELLS 
WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 18N W OF 110W AND MIX 
WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS THROUGH TUE. 

GAP WINDS...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT WERE INDICATED IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT SUNSET SUN...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS 
THAN 20 KT LATE MON.
 
$$
NELSON